Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Buttigieg's first poll lead in 49 days And although he hasn't led, he could really win! In second in a lot of polls, and might translate his votes to SDEs pretty well https://t.co/CBBoGABBjV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are some polls out there that weight on self-reported party registration, and in a lot of places I think that's a mistake. Something to keep in mind: https://t.co/ldyF6s2uBy https://t.co/QFBZYyexOf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PoliticsReid: WH’2020 IOWA DEM caucus poll (FRA/Binder, 1/28-30, trend from early Jan): Buttigieg 19 (+3) Sanders 17 (+3) Biden 15 (-9)… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @KevinQ: @bburkeESPN https://t.co/10iK7EQ1q6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @minakimes: Andy Reid is one of the greatest coaches in NFL history, and I’m really happy that everyone will have to acknowlwdge that no… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

we deserve a mahomes-wilson super bowl. just saying. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ComfortablySmug: Kapernick wouldn't have thrown that pick — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You could take Emerson and YouGov and argue that Sanders has lost a hair over the last week, I suppose. But not clear things breaking anyone else’s way — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, we'll never know. But polls have been very consistent on their House Effects in Iowa, since the methodological differences are unusually big and highly correlated with vote choice. If the race is stable, I think we have pretty strong priors here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If Klobuchar didn't surge, like CBS, I'd wonder whether Pete lost out by not getting this poll. In our poll, at least, he would have been 2nd and closed to within 4 points of Bernie if we had used Selzer's screen and weights. He could use a late show of strength v Biden — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And as I just alluded to but separately, the chance that a final poll from Selzer would have shown a gaining Klobuc… https://t.co/M0PuMamxQ0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Other Iowa polls give the sense of a Biden-Sanders race, and that has the potential to help Biden under a number of circumstances on caucus night. A fourth place finish in Selzer, forgetting the risk of a gaining Klobuchar, would have undermined that advantage, right or wrong — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I will posit that the likeliest answer is 'Biden.' He was in fourth w 15 in their last two polls and for a reason: their method--no education weights, super tight screen, whole RV universe--hurts him at every point. No other pollster has been so tough on him — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With the CBS/YouGov poll showing little change in the race, I'd like to return to this thread and ask a somewhat di… https://t.co/v52A3psxZX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Things that strike me as totally open questions: --who is favored in the Des Moines suburbs, esp if Klobuchar is cr… https://t.co/m2b8ETfrkS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are a few areas of consensus: Sanders strength in the college towns/liberal towns in east. Buttigieg *relativ… https://t.co/Z6OFboWadk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This could certainly just be a product of small sample sizes in various regions. Or it could reflect some real changes in the race, as various candidate surges come and go but leave a lasting mark. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Worth reading But as a caveat fwiw, there's a lot of disagreement among the pollsters I've spoken to about the geographic distribution of candidate support, including in publicly available crosstabs https://t.co/bkZ4nvPHtV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

does the caucus even still happen? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @oneunderscore__: Maybe I've been drinking too much delicious fluoridated tap water, but "The Des Moines Register, in cahoots with CNN,… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At the same time, I don't get totally axing the poll altogether. I can imagine an argument that the credibility of the poll is compromised at this point, even if the issue can be remedied. But what's been said so far does seem consistent with fairly straightforward remedies — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't even get it. In order to crush Bernie, they accidentally didn't call... Buttigieg? And they held the result of the poll because it might have shown... the same candidate leading who they had leading last time (at a point when no one else did)? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The amount of conspiracy in my feed right now is just ridiculous. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @kwcollins: Political twitter: Not releasing the Selzer poll is a conspiracy to hurt my preferred candidate! Polling Twitter: Feeling s… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini You really think it’s a programming error — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And since this is a poll off the voter file, it would be quick to identify the respondent who leveled the complaint… https://t.co/lSzB5xY2qJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This strikes me as the real concern and it is harder to check quickly, but even if you did conclude this person was up to no-good you could remove their interviews and reweight https://t.co/A2iVpNNMDp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MysteryPollster (and i don't think that decision gets made without the pollster at least having uncertainty about whether there's an issue) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MysteryPollster they canceled the broadcast — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Then you're left with the possibility that a Pete supporter remembered wrong. Seems possible. Or that an interviewer neglected to read the name, and their eyes skipped ahead accidentally. Also seems possible. But the possibility of measurement error always exists — PolitiTweet.org