Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Just happened to be checking myself--on the right, our preelection projection for Sanders strength; on the left, wh… https://t.co/XvHf5saWSI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The needle is operating at the precinct level. So, for instance, it knows/thinks Bernie's best precincts in Black Hawk near UNI are already counted https://t.co/FWF9qbmeZV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Our precinct maps are great. https://t.co/JhvCqvArQn https://t.co/oJNepoEZ2X — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It was pretty easy to imagine Pete winning on SDEs while Sanders won the most votes. No conspiracy required https://t.co/CZTc4mb0cg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SeanTrende: With 62 percent reporting, Buttigieg is leading Bernie Sanders by about two points. Please be aware that 62 percent of pre… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the popular vote, Sanders is an 87 percent favorite to win the most votes on first alignment. The two seem poised for an even split in the pledged delegates to the DNC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ETTC19 pledged delegates aren't state delegates — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

...and published. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Buttigieg with a 74 percent chance to win the most SDEs, according to our estimates The returns so far are fundamen… https://t.co/cKPxMX7LSd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Needle is at the gate of the internet, awaits the removal of the yellow warning box we put up last night to be lifted away — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

New needle in route to internet, with blockage cleared. It will not attempt to save the old one if it is still alive — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

it's been that kind of caucus i guess — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Needle maybe a little lost somewhere in route to the internet lol — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Needle in route to the internet. Stand by. 🚨 https://t.co/qXwEnKm3Qf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonathanchait the post page is wrong; those aren't sdes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, with live results is that you never know what's going to happen until you get the data. For the nerds: NAs instead of 0s, not expected; correlated error parameter for county results, not precincts. Missing satellite data. Now we may just be mean-medians on box plots away — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Over all, I see no reason to think that Sanders *will* come back. But Sanders is also close enough--and SDEs noisy enough--that I don't think you'll see any calls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Under more systematic examination, I don't see much reason to think these precincts are fundamentally unrepresentative Characteristics of uncounted v. counted prec Bernie '16: 50% uncounted v. 51.9% counted Pre-election Sanders est: 24% uncounted, v. 24.8% counted — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Black Hawk County could be a possible exception on the Bernie side — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NYT precinct result map now has data. Just eye balling it, doesn't seem like either candidate would have an obvious edge in what's left https://t.co/JhvCqvArQn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not a bad series of results for our poll, between the first alignment numbers so far and the entrance poll data on the composition of the electorate https://t.co/SFgsxHUw0O — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Eyeballing the results by county, it does not seem to me that there's a disproportionate amount of outstanding vote in Bernie counties. So the results aren't obviously unrepresentative (even if they might be under closer examination) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Hard to add much until we start getting the data on here https://t.co/JhvCqvArQn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm seeing some popular vote tallies around here but I dont' know whether they're first or final alignment and I'm holding off on tweeting them until then — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now we wait for data. If we get it by precinct in the way we expected heading into the night-lol-then we should be able to say more — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Buttigieg with a narrow lead with 62% reporting on SDEs Buttigieg 26.9 Sanders 25.1 Warren 18 Biden 15 Doubt that's enough for a network projection. Don't know much about whether it's representative, so be cautious — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a general proposition, the media organizations aren't usually able to project even fairly competitive races with ~62% counted. If it's extremely representative, maybe in a 4 pt race. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But we're running it on background and we'll relay if data comes through — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We haven't been told anything about what we're getting, so we're not putting up a live forecast for now (we don't want to be in a situation where, say, they announce topline results w Buttigieg ahead, but the needle doesn't get data and stays on its narrow Sanders prior) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NYT results page. Take two. https://t.co/eYEkOaZ8Ur — PolitiTweet.org