Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's important to note that this average conceals some substantial variation by state, where Dems basically got cru… https://t.co/Zl4xyhPU50 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

New Quinnipiac general election results in PA/MI/WI. Here's the average across the three states: Trump v. Biden: B… https://t.co/awy2KMv82F — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NateSilver538: Agree. There's a lot of denial about Trump's improving approval rating. It's probably real and there are lots of reasons… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you want to see the basic case, compare the recent ABC/Post polling and the last Pew Research ATP data, or the l… https://t.co/bFCFgH098l — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The possibility of a split in similarly weighted probability online and live polls would be one of the most interes… https://t.co/AaIhN3uHaG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, I continue to be interested in the 2019 divergence of online (red) and live phone polls (blue). It r… https://t.co/l5UbGLBtLp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We weight by party registration or primary history, which is a fixed target on a respondent's voter file records. I… https://t.co/pi7g4z5FkW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tealtalk It's not for me; I don't think the targets are good enough and I'm not willing to assume it's unchanging,… https://t.co/jEGvFIQ2TG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For me, there's a very high burden of proof if you want to argue that there's a secular, multi-month, multi-point t… https://t.co/ts3UZ1G5Ja — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Bloomberg’s not on the ballot in NV; idk if that would have been a good enough excuse to skip this debate, but I’m not sure it needed to be a great excuse — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a former debate who lost his voice more often than most, I’d like to note that Warren seems to be working through some voice issues right now but seems to be pushing through it fairly well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And it can really happen! You just saw it for Klobuchar two weeks ago. The race is that open. But they can't sit back anymore. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The rest have to do whatever they can to stop either Bloomberg or Sanders, as soon as possible, or have the kind of winning debate performance that sends them soaring, like Klobuchar before NH or Gingrich before SC '12. So it's all on the table now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What you're seeing right now can be explained by a simple fact: at this point, only Sanders and Bloomberg have a path forward without making their own magic on the debate stage The rest don't have the resources or the right set of upcoming primaries to organically change the race — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @EmGusk: Joe Biden's image as the most electable Democrat has evaporated https://t.co/qmZnf7HBrw https://t.co/kFJuBEZ7j3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Turns out, as someone points out below, that there was an LV version of the Post poll that I hadn't seen, and Sanders holds up just fine in it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't think a proper horse-race poll would be *vastly* different. But, Sanders has a lot of support from generally lower turnout groups, like young, Hispanic, working class voters, and I could imagine his edge shrinking by a few points among LVs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing I overlooked in thinking about the wave of new national polls today is that they're of registered Dem leaners, and that's not the same as the likely electorate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This strikes me as a fairly important question right now https://t.co/LE3z5jvrxY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The chance of a Sanders win in SC has largely been overlooked, but a close race here is a reasonable inference from national polls, other southern states, and perhaps increasingly the SC polls as well https://t.co/q1z8YryWCV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And with NV/SC either tending to help Sanders or add to division in the field (say, reviving Biden), there aren't many opportunities besides tonight's debate for a non-Sanders/Bloomberg candidate to claim some momentum — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With this in mind, the dynamics heading into tonight's debate are pretty fascinating. It sure seems like Bloomberg--not Sanders--will be the focal point of attack, and that would only tend to widen the door to Sanders — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the latest polls, Sanders gains ground and Bloomberg's momentum seems to stall out a bit. If it lasts, it opens the door to Sanders claiming a commanding lead on Super Tuesday https://t.co/ft2pQAb1x8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins The logic of poll averaging is eroded by the shift to a model-based view of survey research, where pollsters make bias-variance-cost trade offs that skew averages. The surviving argument is just an instrumental "it works," which is important but not a logical/theoretical basis — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Then you have some Trump-specific factors, like impeachment/acquittal. Add Trump's likely advantage with LVs and in the Electoral College, and Trump's could be very close to the place where he needs to be, if he isn't there already. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's not hard to see why Trump would be gaining. It's fairly typical for the president to see their ratings increase at this point, as they begin to benefit from a contrast with their opposition and the economy has often provided a boost around now as well, as it is here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Meanwhile, Trump approval reaches a new high in the FiveThirtyEight tracker: 45.9 approve, 50.1 disapprove among RVs. https://t.co/85ZK8iNafA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The newest wave of live interview national polls tells a fairly clear story: Sanders advancing near 30% with Bloomberg's momentum blunted, positioning Sanders to win around half of delegates on Super Tues. Quite possible, though not so clear in state polls, at least not yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The needle may not be thin enough for this narrow margin https://t.co/KiJbzJdls5 https://t.co/Fm7QbbdDWw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Buttigieg lead in Iowa appears to fall to a mere 0.08 SDEs after recanvass Buttigieg 563.207 Sanders 563.127 https://t.co/ScWQUecTRb — PolitiTweet.org