Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 24, 2020

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Wed Feb 19 14:10:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Then you have some Trump-specific factors, like impeachment/acquittal. Add Trump's likely advantage with LVs and in the Electoral College, and Trump's could be very close to the place where he needs to be, if he isn't there already. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's not hard to see why Trump would be gaining. It's fairly typical for the president to see their ratings increase at this point, as they begin to benefit from a contrast with their opposition and the economy has often provided a boost around now as well, as it is here — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins The logic of poll averaging is eroded by the shift to a model-based view of survey research, where pollsters make bias-variance-cost trade offs that skew averages. The surviving argument is just an instrumental "it works," which is important but not a logical/theoretical basis — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 19, 2020 Hibernated