Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: Fact: in 2016, only 31% of U.S. voters lived closer to a Whole Foods, Lululemon, Urban Outfitters or Apple Store than to a… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, I am not sure what the lesson is exactly, but I do think it is interesting. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the other direction, Data For Progress has had a very strong opening to the primary season, but they had Trump w… https://t.co/kdWTcNz6fZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Take us and Civiqs in Iowa, for instance. Very similar caucus results and similar error. But they consistently show… https://t.co/xUdMQp0Mmn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One interesting thing in polling right now is that some of the firms who have done well in the early states have pr… https://t.co/TuMryrRpTS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticalKiwi i'm going to wind this down, since we're going in circles. the data tells a clear and consistent sto… https://t.co/9TU2E7Yl9G — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

These numbers feel more consistent with the national polling than most of what else we've seen ahead of Super Tuesday https://t.co/bf4q202Gcx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticalKiwi the sample by region is small here, but here is our TX statewide poll https://t.co/5KkDPS4u9j — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticalKiwi hispanic turnout was definitely too low in our polling, but in our analysis it's clear that turnout,… https://t.co/okA4Zw3AwE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticalKiwi in our polls of the texas suburban districts, trump approval rating with hispanic voters was 37/55 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticalKiwi they're more conservative, at least on cultural issues, but they are not more republican — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticalKiwi i'd guess that only around half of hispanic voters live in majority hispanic tracts — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticalKiwi sample is quite small, but dems start really running up the score as you get up higher https://t.co/XyFJQWBYM5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticalKiwi hispanic voters who don't live in majority-hispanic areas are far more conservative, here Trump appr… https://t.co/YyH6jlZYK8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One place where I wonder whether Sanders could make up ground, OTOH, is Maine 2. It was a big loss for Clinton, but… https://t.co/HDik6dP2mi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't think this would be a huge surprise, given the age of the state's white voters and the number of Romney-Clinton voters here. But it would be fairly important if this held up, since Sanders has trailed in the average of Wisconsin polls as well. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On the electability front, one interesting question is Arizona. For many Democrats, it's their natural and perhaps… https://t.co/QD0T5DAbdm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

An additional TX specific question, IMO, is south Texas. On simple demographics based on NV, that seems like Sander… https://t.co/EmbP3qDeUi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

He's not super strong in TX, but if you use the early states, the non-Sanders vote is just too fragmented to beat h… https://t.co/NdOa6ASsMR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Bloomberg makes an early-state based model all but useless for Super Tuesday, but it says what you'd expect: Biden… https://t.co/o84ZHo5RS9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But it does strike me as quite notable, that even as late as NV, Biden was still winning majority black areas by en… https://t.co/qzUPbCV7Z0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

All the same caveats that applied before NV apply here. It's a fundamentally different campaign from state to state… https://t.co/EpcJze9QpQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Also, correction; I typed Warren/Steyer backward. The actual estimate based on NV: Biden 36 Sanders 21 Steyer 14 Wa… https://t.co/qXp95A3WcF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, there aren't many of these precincts in Nevada. And black voters in NV aren't the same as in SC, and so… https://t.co/EzVoITz2ic — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is driven by Biden's easy to overlook strength precincts where black voters make up a majority of Democratic voters in Nevada. There aren't many of them, but it's fairly obvious on the map (north side of Las Vegas) and in the data https://t.co/ogr63Ivg3X — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you model the result in South Carolina, based on the results in Nevada, here's what you get: Biden 36 Sanders 2… https://t.co/LFKJPLIUhj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Nevada is not South Carolina. But I think if you look at the results carefully there, it is at least consistent wit… https://t.co/UbD2Hk8BPx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What kind of odds would you have gotten on that 90 minutes ago? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Can we just pause to note that somehow Bloomberg managed to be on the "Politburo not so bad" side of a debate with Bernie Sanders — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A lot of people are googling "naked cowboy" right now — PolitiTweet.org