Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It seems safe to say that when all of the votes are counted, that Biden will have won the most votes across the four early contests — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: There were polls that had this a single digit race published as late as Thursday. Woosh. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Looking at the 10 precincts with both election day and early votes, it seems to me that Sanders is definitely farin… https://t.co/rTwmBkDyJ5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We've got a nice precinct results map in SC that's beginning to fill in tonight https://t.co/HiyxcpESyO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Either way, we'll get our first clear look once we start getting some counties up to 100% of *precincts* counted, a… https://t.co/ymZRKNp5Gh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What you're seeing now is almost all absentee vote, and absentee vote is almost always quite old. That said, there'… https://t.co/WHYCZc9uuh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

These 70% Biden results in the SC rural absentee vote tells you much of what you need to know about the preference… https://t.co/K8fU4R6Pug — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(to be clear, if not impossible if Sanders misses 15 in a district; quite straightforward if he misses 15 statewide) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Two things I'm watching at this point in the night: --Can Biden win by the 30 delegates needed to take the overall… https://t.co/nYZatcsMpf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden gets early calls from the networks based on the exit polls, showing him up nearly 25 pts -- say 45 to 21 or so. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The nomination would basically be his https://t.co/eXRh3oJHME — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Needle is up and running, starting at Biden+15 based on the pre-election polls https://t.co/zyJcs6jeYs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On Super Tuesday, this same formulation will give Sanders a shot to win huge margins out of California. For now tho… https://t.co/K9uNWMeTK7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That's not the way this works. If Biden got 35 and Bernie 15, that's Biden at 70 percent of the qualifying vote. An… https://t.co/mlTVJuK1ae — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If we start heading into >20 pt leads for Biden, one thing to watch is whether he takes the cumulative popular vote… https://t.co/JZGxkhHM4u — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

After three long election nights (or weeks in Iowa's case), SC should be fairly quick. Not only might Biden win dec… https://t.co/7FlDrZ4tZJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And yes, the needle is back. With Biden potentially poised for a decisive victory it might make up its mind pretty… https://t.co/EVsYbpS1Ga — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Happy election day! NYT results page is live >> https://t.co/ilrfUV1jER — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ByMikeBaker: BREAKING: A person in the Seattle area has become the first person in the United States to die of the coronavirus COVID-19… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'd say we have a good line here at 12.5, based on those votes. RCP is Biden by 12.5 FiveThirtyEight is Biden+19.2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Alright, how about Biden by 12.5? Over (on Biden margin) or under? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Alright, what's the line on the margin in South Carolina? I'll open here at Biden by 15, are you taking the over (on Biden margin) or under? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MediumBuying: FLASH: Bloomberg currently has no TV ad spending booked beyond Super Tuesday — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Political_Data Anyway, I have no idea how Super Tuesday is going to go. But the conditions for a Biden surge here are fairly straightforward and not precluded by early voting, even if mitigated. I wouldn't dismiss the idea, even if I'm not sure it's going to happen either — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Look at CA absentees, for instance, using @Political_Data, and you've got GOPers returning ballots at far higher rates so far, even Dems have the competitive race. Why? They know who they're voting for! https://t.co/aNfQzJmtJR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On balance though, I'd guess that the average critical post in my reply is overestimating the importance of early voting here. It's not a massive share of the vote in most states right now. Decided voters are likeliest to do it; many Dems are holding back on their votes in CA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think the early voting question is an interesting one. I would guess that mitigates the effect in many--but not all--states. How much? I don't know. The 'enough time' question? That seems clear: definitely enough time. The Biden Comeback is going to be The Story for three days — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Does it go too far? I mean, quite possibly but I have no idea, and I'd guess we won't know until Tuesday, with so few polls likely to hit during that narrow window. And even if they do, the Klobucharge is a reminder that it may not fully show up in the pre-election polls anyway — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The majority of my replies think it's crazy, but I think it's credible, even if I'm not sure it's 'right,' and I think it's consistent with the last month, whether it's the Klobucharge or the post-IA Bloomberg surge. A lot of moderate vote seem willing to back the hot hand — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

FiveThirtyEight forecast is pretty interesting and bold right now (and I'm not saying it's wrong!) making Biden a very narrow favorite in TX, VA, NC, and across the South, in spite of the polls, by anticipating a post-SC bounce for Biden https://t.co/HcecWuF3aN — PolitiTweet.org