Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JayCostTWS you can tell the opposite story, though. politics radicalizes in the 1850s in part because the Senate at once rewards/encourages Southern intransigence and fuels northern fears of the 'slave power.' a proportional gvt passes the wilmot provisio. die is cast before radicalization — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JayCostTWS i feel like you're conflating a theoretical benefit of overrepresenting small states with empirical reality on this? what's your exact counterfactual here? any law that was built into policy was enacted by the house too, after all. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@researchrants Children, Gen z, millennial, x, boomer, silent — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @otis_reid @RyanDEnos and while it's true that there's another 1/3, all of the net-flipping toward GOP is among '22 primary voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @otis_reid @RyanDEnos looking through, 2/3 of the 367k voted in the march GOP primary — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @otis_reid @RyanDEnos looking through, 2/3 of the 367k voted in the march primary — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @otis_reid @RyanDEnos L2 traditionally characterizes a huge share of Texas RVs as 'likely dem,' and an even larger share of nonvoters. as a result, a really large share of new GOP primary voters will be appear to be switchers — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @otis_reid @RyanDEnos yeah, i'd still guess it's basically entirely primary participation. the characterizations are based on more than primaries, but i'd guess the switch is all primary. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @otis_reid @RyanDEnos i don't think so — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid @jon_m_rob @RyanDEnos given L2's method, i think it's probably more that it's not independent from 'high GOP primary turnout' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jon_m_rob: So...about that AP piece that went viral on Monday about party registration switches. My colleagues at @Catalist_US went dee… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos @jon_m_rob we didn't publish a house model in '18, but yes -- the value of incumbency and the relative weight of past house/presidential results vary with redistricting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @aedwardslevy: Here's a story I've been working on for a bit -- it's on a hard-to-measure polling phenomenon ("expressive responding")… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SCOTUSblog: THE SUPREME COURT HAS OVERTURNED ROE V. WADE, ELIMINATING THE CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT TO ABORTION. https://t.co/ZNYRs3QnpJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @algaraca @ercjhnkrbs @SpecialPuppy1 I’m not at computer so maybe I’m not tracking this convo properly, but I’ve interpreted this to mainly be about geographic effects given the OP use of county data / use of geo covariants. individual vote ofc predicted by individual attitudes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @algaraca @ercjhnkrbs @SpecialPuppy1 Idk to me the causal story mainly flows from education. It’s not just a measure of latent SES, it’s demarcating the postindustrial post-materialist world — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 @davidshor @algaraca @ercjhnkrbs @SpecialPuppy1 as I said, we also use tract density. I’ll just say that we do very different kinds of election analysis with very different kinds of data, and it is very plausible that density is more relevant w different data at different geo levels w different controls than others — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @algaraca @ercjhnkrbs @SpecialPuppy1 indeed—almost comically larger — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 @davidshor @algaraca @ercjhnkrbs @SpecialPuppy1 most of your analysis w density is at the state level, for ex — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 @davidshor @algaraca @ercjhnkrbs @SpecialPuppy1 measure it the same way that you do. different data and controls, I guess — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @algaraca @ercjhnkrbs @SpecialPuppy1 Haven’t played w this in a while but it was usually a zero for me w standard controls. Don’t really use it anymore as a result — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SteveKornacki: New UNH survey of "like NH GOP primary voters" for 2024 (n=318): DeSantis 39% Trump 37% Pence 9% Haley 6% Pompeo 1% Noe… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob close enough, though there's some election day vote in there https://t.co/3AHrKDFmnY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob fair. yeah, this has been happening forever. i mean i still remember the early vote on super tuesday in '08 being like clinton 50, obama 30 (edwards... not shown) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob it does feel like every downside risk of mail voting has been highlighted over the last cycle, between the NC-09 absentee ballot harvesting scheme, the 2020 democratic primary, post office freakout, slow count/post-election shifts, legal disputes over signatures/rejections, etc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob we did all just watch something like 30% of western democrats waste their votes in the 2020 democratic primary — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @KevinQ: It's an extreme privilege to be the next editor of the Upshot, which I consider to be one of the best jobs in journalism. It'… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot the november 'primary' does help that case — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach @davidshor @simon_bazelon @mattyglesias @MattGrossmann @BrendanNyhan and even if you could recreate the 2012 campaign, it is not at all obvious that these voters are as easy for democrats to win as they were at the time. many probably just identify as republican nowadays — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@simon_bazelon @BrendanNyhan @davidshor @nbeaudrot @mattyglesias @MattGrossmann the GOP's structural advantage is significant, but i don't think it's obvious that they would be plainly favored to hold the senate after six years in the WH with presidential approval ratings in-line with the post-03 average — PolitiTweet.org