Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MonmouthPoll: NATIONAL POLL: @realDonaldTrump job rating ticks down: 44% approve (46% in March) 49% disapprove (48%) Rating is similar… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @AsteadWesley: ahh we're fighting about politics again. simpler times — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @dfriedman33: It's a hard time, but the UK's Foreign Sec still shouldn't use this cliche. "I'm confident he'll pull through because if t… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

364 days since that piece! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/kBGZMYSwyW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PollsterPatrick: Welp. There go all the "should Bernie drop out" questions we're releasing in tomorrow @MonmouthPoll . [Wouldn't it b… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's Trump v Biden https://t.co/i7MuhlO5tK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So here's the New York metro area heading into today, same charts. That hick-up on the bottom-left, the growth in daily deaths, is the good news everyone's talking about. When I look at this compared to Lombardy, I'm not really surprised that we had another jump in deaths today. https://t.co/UPZalpuMAr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should note that this is a pretty meh-to-bad proxy. Deaths, sadly, actually relieve the health care system. It may make more sense when you use cases. But it's what we've got. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's what's actually happened in Lombardy. They've actually leveled off their estimated active cases/system burden (here, deaths in last 14 days as a proxy since we don't have this IRL) https://t.co/1TRyubkMgd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You're used to seeing the charts of cases over time; that's top left. It's nice, but doesn't help you see 'bending the curve.' It will go up. What we really want to do is 'bend the curve' on active cases/deaths. That curve *starts* to bend when there's a peak in new cases/deaths. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With the focus on possible good news over the last few days, let's step back and think about the the various measures of COVID and how they fit together, using my handy hand-drawn charts https://t.co/eziHoKePYT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At the moment and I believe for the first time, Washington is out of the top ten states for confirmed Coronavirus cases https://t.co/pnirhE5wxA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes also have lower population density, OTOH, we have higher rates of comorbidities that predict mortality controlling for age, like diabetes and heart disease, which would mitigate or perhaps reverse the US demographic advantage on age and density. don't know — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

No guarantee, of course, that the US continues to track at the same pace. But the US is about 14 days behind Western Europe on deaths, so there's not a lot of time for it to turn out much better, esp since there's little progress on cases, which are more of a leading indicator — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

US daily growth in deaths and cases continues to track almost identically to Western Europe at a comparable stage https://t.co/ch6Ff4jVBZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let's check back in on the comparison US v. continental Western Europe comparison (pop 328 v 320 m), where the death toll is now 42k. https://t.co/ZISXipzBjc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @TrevonDLogan: The news from Milwaukee is deeply troubling. The county is 26% black... https://t.co/z1sDuhtHT5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MattGarrahan: This is an astonishing story https://t.co/lSJ6qwLTLE https://t.co/MdrAoVJicd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another thing I'm tracking is the US v. Western Europe. We're not publishing this automatically, but it's a useful comparison to the US if you want to move to a larger geography than a metro https://t.co/jQMVcVz7qO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're now tracking COVID cases and deaths by metro, which--personal view--I think is the best geography for thinking about the virus https://t.co/4H079S7I0V — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @sangerkatz: This is @Nate_Cohn 's favorite chart. We call it "rate by severity." This shows you how fast the epidemic is growing based… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/qut9Igxrvr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @AlxThomp: NEWS: The DNC is postponing the party’s presidential convention in Milwaukee to August 17, the week before the Republican Par… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PatrickRuffini: Biden is out to a 2-to-1 lead right now. But we've been asking a Biden-Sanders two-way since last May. Biden's margin h… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To me, the best comparisons are metro-level. Metros correspond with the natural extent of community spread. It corresponds with the availability of easily shared health resources. If we go above that, the right comparison may depend a bit on what we want to learn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In many comparisons, we'd just learn how much of a geography is unaffected, and that's not what we're interested in. So it may be unusually useful to use the most direct comparisons we can: metro to metro, not just nation to nation but nations/regions of similar pop/densit/size — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

IE: coronavirus cases don't just spread evenly throughout a country, they spread throughout communities, leading to metro-area type clusters. So what does it mean to compare Lombardy to the US, even on a per capita basis, when huge parts of the US remain largely unaffected? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Charts without any population adjustment obviously overstate the US. But per capita measurement is tougher than you'd think. Early growth is a function of N, not rates (IE: 1 infects 2, whether you live in 10k or 10million). Later, it's constrained by pop and slowed by geography — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One small thought I'll toss out there is that I think it's tough to compare coronavirus cases across geographies of varying size and population. — PolitiTweet.org