Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm still pretty emotional after the Mariners won the '95 ALDS on ESPN last night tbh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ProFootballTalk: First-round pocket presence. https://t.co/1FWJWkLduO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @yghitza is the 'education' here self-reported or is it modeled? because that might make sense of it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Nate_Cohn: @gelliottmorris @ejfagan And unless you have a different set of data here, it sure seems to me that YouGov also shows the bi… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @ejfagan And unless you have a different set of data here, it sure seems to me that YouGov also shows the big swing toward Dems https://t.co/Wmoya4YREJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @ejfagan --i don't think it's BS at all. i think yougov is great. but there are limits to what it can do in a case like this, and that's implicit in the methodology. --it could easily be temporary, and if it is we'll never know whether yougov was right or wrong here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @ejfagan here's a simple rule of thumb: if a pollster uses RDD telephone polls to design a synthetic sample and specify the joint distribution of covariates that correlate strongly with vote choice, that pollsters data can't be used to claim RDD polling is biased over a long period — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ejfagan @gelliottmorris this is only the tip of the iceberg. biden's been leading seniors the whole time, and by approximately the same margin (though it has ticked up with respect to the national vote) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob skeptical tbh. i just don't see how you generate the huge swings by county, consistent along demographic lines, with such a small change in vote choice by education — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kernighan it's in the article, but no it doesn't account for most of the shift — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden's lost some ground among the remaining three-quarters of the electorate. It could be small enough (say, 3 points) that it would be hard to detect in the inconsistent tabs of voters under 65, but it's almost certainly there https://t.co/o2fjZiT2wx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's not sampling error. It may not last, but it's real https://t.co/NXbwiPcOqm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Nate_Cohn: @kwcollins Not as comprehensively, or as late in the cycle (which may mute some wider margins for nonwhite voters, ex.) but… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins Not as comprehensively, or as late in the cycle (which may mute some wider margins for nonwhite voters, ex.) but https://t.co/itbK0MdQBw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And, here's an out-take. Change from 2012-->2016 compared to change fro 2016-->2020, using same method https://t.co/6TiyvA0sq3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And there's basically a whole piece-within-a-piece here on seniors, discussing the many factors possibly at play: --Generational change, as boomers now 60% of senior RVs --Coronavirus --Biden relative favorability --Polling biases, as many polls include too many old women — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonathanchait And maybe a different way to frame it: reducing the number of undecided voters has reduced the risk of error in state polls, but the state polls now start off reflecting a very close race in WI rather than Clinton+6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonathanchait I think it's an open question whether that's what happened. But, either way, I think the point is that the risk of a 1.7 point national polling error is not exactly vastly lower today than it was then — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonathanchait very well might be, particularly by state. but it's not like clinton's lead in national polls was off by very much — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

After four years, the 2020 polls pick up almost exactly where they left off in 2016. Here's how the race has changed, or hasn't https://t.co/diyRiWdtYv https://t.co/d4NFTP0g3q — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbarro @RyanDEnos @Davin_Phoenix @SteveKornacki oh, i have to confess that i missed the qualifier of '70s' here. i see your point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbarro @RyanDEnos @Davin_Phoenix @SteveKornacki and white voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos @jbarro @Davin_Phoenix @SteveKornacki don't think that's it. doesn't explain hispanic voters, and we know from all kinds of questions that white left-liberals are farther left than black/nonwhite voters on a whole host of these sort of issues — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jswatz: “Right now there are no early indications of a home run anywhere," Dr. Fauci said. "There’s nothing that has been dramatic at a… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's a pretty pro-Washington/Seattle night on TV between ESPN playing game 5 of the '95 ALDS and PBS Frontline's coronavirus documentary framed as the "tale of two Washingtons" — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It seems likely that 2016 was the last election with a plausibly reportable result for the so-called Greatest Generation. It's <0.2% of RVs in recent polls. It was Clinton 50, Trump 35 (N=228) and 0.7% of RVs in '16 polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

File this away under totally unsurprising poll results https://t.co/5HeutFqxW1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As many pointed out during the primary, seniors were already Biden's area of relative strength in the general election compared to Sanders or Warren. Whatever his other weaknesses, this is something he's relatively well positioned to capitalize on — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One of several possible explanations for Biden's newfound--and nearly double digit--lead among voters over age 65 https://t.co/yQc9bjqp2f — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@WTPDavid what about a foreign medical student about to graduate this month and start a residency in a new york hospital? what about a doctor whose non-immigrant H1B visa is about to expire and they'd need a green card to stay? immigration is a lot more complicated than all-caps INTO — PolitiTweet.org