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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@kwcollins weighting by voter file covariates + education is a fine place to start, and there are very few who clear that threshold. a good set of results in '18 helps — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@Bouje99 https://t.co/AkDi7Nouc7 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
You're better off taking the Cygnal result in GA, adding the D+1.4 difference between GA and NC in '16, and calling it a day — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Not high quality work. Literally an unweighted email survey https://t.co/84Jk0B1G1n — PolitiTweet.org
Eric Hollenberg @HollaAtMeBerg
@Nate_Cohn @Nate_Cohn what about the Meredith college poll today on NC?
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Unlike a lot of the state polls out there, I think Cygnal polls look like high quality work https://t.co/UDoj0GgEIs — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Ok head-to-head final matchup: — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@kwcollins and should probably caution that the N=29 on 'greatest' — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@kwcollins bonus content, from our oct polls. Semi-fun thing is that neither Z nor Milennials were as pro-Biden as either 18-29 (Biden+18) or 18-34 (Biden+15) https://t.co/RWfxH1ZIq3 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@kwcollins bonus content, from our oct polls. Semi-fun thing is that neither Z nor Milennials were as pro-Biden as either 18-29 (Biden+18) or 18-34 (Biden+15) https://t.co/ClxvpvyytC — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@kwcollins i like generations but it's tough to compare to anything else if no one else is doing it — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
What's your preferred crosstab for looking at young voters nowadays? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@jon_m_rob đź’… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @JustinWolfers: This is stunning: Nearly half of the Q1 decline in GDP can be attributed to healthcare, which is presumably delaying of… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Anyway, this is a nice example of why these low turnout elections just aren't a useful way to gauge the overall political situation in a state. You can get lopsided results with a modest turnout advantage that's very difficult, even impossible, to recreate in a presidential race — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
97% of these voters would have been considered 'likely' voters in the general election. But 33% of Biden likely voters had cast mail ballots, while just 22% of Trump likely voters did (numbers were 31/25 for self-ID Dems/Reps) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
This doesn't include some late mail ballots and Election Day votes, of course, but it suggests that the result will probably be entirely explained by anomalous turnout that won't happen in November, and Wisconsin is probably what we think it is — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Why the Wisconsin election shouldn't move anyone's view of the general: our 10/19 poll of Wisconsin had Biden up by 2 among likely voters in the general election, but voters who had returned mail ballots by 4/9, according to L2 data, backed Biden over Trump by 20, 55-36 (n=186) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
pre-coffee google search: philadelphia phips code — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @jshkatz: This is much, much larger than seasonal variation from heart disease and flu. It's not comparable to anything in recent memory… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Suffolk with Biden+10, and I'd note that this poll had Trump ahead in December and has consistently had a fairly strong approval rating for Trump (one of the very few polls I can recall ever generating a positive approval rating for Trump) https://t.co/UuvFRVbKt8 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
And another https://t.co/waGh6uyHwX — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
I can think of plenty of reasons why New York might be unique right now, but the overall trend line in the state polling is pretty clear while we wait for some new national numbers https://t.co/GXH8m2ZkRr — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
From a YouGov poll that's one month old today https://t.co/N2A71YJErL https://t.co/Fqk47HGm69 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @otis_reid: 1 in 598 = population death rate of 0.16%. It just completely rules out that this is anything like the flu. https://t.co/862… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @ZekeJMiller: Mnuchin on FNS “You’re going to see the economy really bounce back in July, August and September” — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @Popehat: Hypothesis: the more you call people “snowflakes,” the more likely it is you are incensed at butter right now https://t.co/YgM… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @walidgellad: Nice data visualization from NYT. Huge spike in first time outpatient prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine after pres sta… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @A_agadjanian: Have 65+ shifted their vote Dem? Important Q w/some conflicting evidence. We need to... 1. Hold pollster constant (chang… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@davidshor @xenocryptsite 2nd by Dem share, fwiw; 9th by margin — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@davidshor @xenocryptsite 12/25 is the 9th most Democratic birthday in Iowa — PolitiTweet.org
