Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 14, 2020

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Tue Apr 28 15:23:36 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

97% of these voters would have been considered 'likely' voters in the general election. But 33% of Biden likely voters had cast mail ballots, while just 22% of Trump likely voters did (numbers were 31/25 for self-ID Dems/Reps) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This doesn't include some late mail ballots and Election Day votes, of course, but it suggests that the result will probably be entirely explained by anomalous turnout that won't happen in November, and Wisconsin is probably what we think it is — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, this is a nice example of why these low turnout elections just aren't a useful way to gauge the overall political situation in a state. You can get lopsided results with a modest turnout advantage that's very difficult, even impossible, to recreate in a presidential race — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 28, 2020 Hibernated