Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What's telling, to me, is that many partisan firms have decided to avoid this path. Some of it is because it's not useful in a lot of geographies (it's really hard to do this in a CD, or, uh, Montana). But I don't think people are terribly pleased with the data, either — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is the realm where today's MSU poll in MT is from, and I suspect we're going to see of it. It's too easy. But we really don't know what we have here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is the realm where today's MSU poll in MT is from, and I suspect we're going to see more here. It's too easy for some pollsters not to go this route. And we really don't know what we have here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Online panel data weighted to standard demographic targets is murkier. I think we know it's kinda ok but not great nationally. At the state level--especially small states--we've got reason to be skeptical and I don't know of an either empirical or theoretical basis for confidence — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Like, that Meredith College poll of NC the other day was from a matched voter file sample, but you don't want any part of an unweighted email poll I promise — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

ike, that Meredith College poll of NC the other day was from a matched voter file sample, but you don't want any part of that poll I promise — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Like, that Meredith College poll of NC the other day was from a matched voter file sample from Dyanata, but you don't want any part of that poll I promise — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Unfortunately, it's hard to draw lines due to a lack of publicly available data or methodological transparency. To my mind, YouGov synthetic sampling, various mail- or text-to-web efforts, or panels matched to the file are presumptively reportable, even if quality varies *a lot* — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Unfortunately, it's hard to draw lines due to a lack of publicly available data or methodological transparency. To my mind, YouGov synthetic sampling, various mail- or text-to-web efforts, or panels matched to the voter file are presumptively reportable, even quality varies a lot — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Basically, I'd urge some caution on a lot of the state polling we're seeing lately. I don't want to say it's all bad. But IDK how much of it is good, and some of it doesn't even cross the threshold of a reportable result, IMO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are some very real reasons why it's quite difficult to just take an online poll sample of a state and weight it to census demographics, as if it's a phone poll. That challenge gets even greater in smaller states, where the number of panelists is awfully thin — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One corollary here is that there is virtually no track record for online state polling results, other than YouGov--which is fairly distinct in its own right. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Back in '18, those online pollsters represented only about 10 percent of the firms who entered the fray (though a larger share of polls, thanks to a few prolific outfits like Change Research). Now nearly 50% of the firms releasing state poll results — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One interesting change so far this cycle is the explosion of *state* online polling. We've now had more online pollsters publish state results over the last month than in the final few weeks of the 2018 midterms — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dparkermontana my question is: 'what's the methodology' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

DK, no methodology/crosstabs, and the only thing we know--online--both represents a significant methodological change from their prior poll (RBS mail!) and could be quite a challenge in a small, rural state https://t.co/19Zp0iFcFn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @john_voorheis: According to predictions from my "cubic model" fitted on yesterday's data, today's temperature is approaching absolute z… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Gosspaine @UpshotNYT tbh thinking about just using them the rest of the cycle and saving some money https://t.co/TjoAmMvrJs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At this point, would you rather pollsters reported results for likely voters or registered voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JayCostTWS also https://t.co/jW4tLv4YMQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JayCostTWS https://t.co/4H079S7I0V — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @daveweigel: Accuser claims that Biden harassed her at 2008 event. Website that breaks story has six on-record sources who say accuser… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nytgraphics: Joe Biden won the Kansas primary, earning 29 of the state’s 39 total delegates. See the full results here: https://t.co/6v… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @RussContreras: Bobby Lee Verdugo, one of the leaders of the 1968 East Los Angeles high school walkout to protest discrimination and dro… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Can’t wait for the debate about whether they should be called Murder Hornets or Asian Hornets — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ajjaffe: New: Tara Reade told me the report she says she filed regarding her issues with Joe Biden did not explicitly accuse him of sex… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm surprised that Trump leads Biden in the betting markets tbh. Not sure I'd take anything from it, but it's not what I expected https://t.co/OheMvEvphr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PatrickRuffini: 😱😱😱 Millennials have officially overtaken Boomers as the largest generation. https://t.co/8e3b5tx7SV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Chrisvance123 @JoeBiden @ricredman @ProjectLincoln @ForTheRuleOfLaw @jwgop @reedgalen @SykesCharlie I thought you lived in auburn? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins as an aside, i also take note of anyone who is weighting on turnout, since that's both a good and expensive choice — PolitiTweet.org