Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Sorry, correction, I misread the FL method. Both are just weighted to the exit poll (which is not weighted by education and therefore no better than not weighting at all). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Two of them, sadly, think they're weighting by education but aren't really. One is weighting to the exit poll (which itself is unweighted) or weighting to a voter file classification (should be better than not weighting, yet apparently comically useless here) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A majority of state pollsters, including all three polls out this morning in AZ/FL/VA https://t.co/a4W3iTx2II — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonathanchait @ForecasterEnten a majority of state polls, including all three out this morning — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @xkcdComic: Mount St. Helens https://t.co/xr4mAfUiek https://t.co/cU2HmaVzQ5 https://t.co/24uvfFAIsj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForestServiceNW: Photos taken by climbers on Mt. Adams viewing the stunning #MtStHelens eruption @ 8:32 AM, May 18, 1980. 40 year ago t… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @KevinQ: New in today's Upshot, a serious attempt at answering a question I think almost all New Yorkers have wondered: How many peopl… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jon_m_rob: It was only a matter of time before spam calls cratering telephone survey response rates also bled over into our ability to… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@LPDonovan not really sure there's any insight here beyond what we can see from the toplines: trump's approval < 50, biden fav <50, trump losing — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The biggest issue is that they're not the same people. Many who disliked Trump and voted for him now like Trump, for ex. Many tweets seem to imply that the group 'swung,' but that's just not proven by the data they're using. The double-haters are smaller than '16, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A lot of people I respect focus on this, but one thing I'd be fine never hearing about again are the so-called 'double-haters,' who dislike both candidates and backed Trump last time and support Biden this time — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PollsAndVotes: For public opinion dynamics folks: I was impressed at the evidence in @MULawPoll of how much attention is being paid to… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And let us recall that this pattern may be driven in part by the partisanship of low turnout voters who sit out specials (young, Hispanic voters in CA; white, working class voters in WI), and who will vote in higher numbers in November https://t.co/7KrA1qHs7y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And let us recall that this pattern is probably driven in part by the partisanship of low turnout voters in these areas who sit out specials (young, Hispanic voters in CA; white, working class voters in WI), and who will vote in higher numbers in November https://t.co/7KrA1qHs7y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And let us recall that this pattern is probably driven in part by the partisanship of low turnout voters who sit out specials (young, Hispanic voters in CA; white, working class voters in WI), and who will vote in higher numbers in November — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And let us recall that this pattern is probably driven in part by the partisanship of low turnout voters in these areas who sit out specials (young, Hispanic voters in CA; white, working class voters in WI), and who will vote in higher numbers in November https://t.co/7KrA1qHs7y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And let's not waste any of our time making inferences about the presidential race from low turnout specials, whether it's a decent result for Dems in WI07 (let alone the WI supreme court race held on a D primary night) or a good result for the GOP in CA25 https://t.co/joi5Ih4jAJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And let's not waste any of our time on unbalanced battleground subsamples from national polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And let's not waste any of our time--or tweets at me--looking at unbalanced battleground subsamples from national polls? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Taking the live interview polls this month, we've got CNN at Biden+5 (v. long term avg Biden+9), Monmouth at Biden+9 (long term +3.5), and Marquette in WI at Biden+3 (long term +2). Put it together, you've got a largely unchanged race; if you had to squint, maybe Biden up a pt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But for this same reason, it is difficult to rule out an equal and opposite 'snap back' in later ballots, whether it's on Election Day in a state like OH or in the late mail/provisionals/election day votes in this CA25 special — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A good rule of thumb in early voting is that preference within partisan subgroups is biased toward the party with a turnout advantage. IE: if GOP returns are way outpacing Dems, the GOP/Ind/and Dem groups will likely tilt GOP, v. nonvoters, as well https://t.co/VcMh1YPVtP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As always in California, my advice is to go to bed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @paconner: Interesting data point for churches in CDC report on choir outbreak in Washington: 'The act of singing itself might have cont… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Survey is still open, but the demographics so far: 87% non-Hispanic white 88% Male 87% with a college degree (and much of the rest probably in college; just 2% HS grad only) 56% under age 34 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Zip codes with at least 10 respondents in survey this morning: Capitol Hill, DC; U Street, DC; Shaw, DC; Rosslyn, VA; Park Slope, NY; Clarendon, VA; Morningside Heights, NY; Columbia Heights, DC; Kips Bay, NY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@CampaignDiaries there are some other polls worth looking at, like the marquette poll out today. unfortunately, the majority barely count as polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@CampaignDiaries hard to believe, but--on average--a single nyt/siena poll over the final three weeks has beaten an average of non-nyt/siena polls in the same races (though it's a close call) (fwiw i wouldn't use late RCP avg v. early poll for PA, and i wouldn't use RCP w GOP polls) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Take my survey! Nearly 1000 responses to this unscientific poll so far https://t.co/QfFvKIQ5xU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Nate_Cohn: Take my 10 question poll! It's not a scientific poll, of course, but it has a purpose Anyone's eligible, feel free to share… — PolitiTweet.org