Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 29, 2020

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Wed May 13 13:02:43 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But for this same reason, it is difficult to rule out an equal and opposite 'snap back' in later ballots, whether it's on Election Day in a state like OH or in the late mail/provisionals/election day votes in this CA25 special — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A good rule of thumb in early voting is that preference within partisan subgroups is biased toward the party with a turnout advantage. IE: if GOP returns are way outpacing Dems, the GOP/Ind/and Dem groups will likely tilt GOP, v. nonvoters, as well https://t.co/VcMh1YPVtP — PolitiTweet.org

Some people asked: “How do you know every registered R is voting for Garcia?” Well as it turns out, Garcia not only… https://t.co/t5MRdFzOJZ

Posted May 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Taking the live interview polls this month, we've got CNN at Biden+5 (v. long term avg Biden+9), Monmouth at Biden+9 (long term +3.5), and Marquette in WI at Biden+3 (long term +2). Put it together, you've got a largely unchanged race; if you had to squint, maybe Biden up a pt — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 13, 2020 Hibernated