Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To be clear, I'm not a big fan of weighting on self-reported '16 vote choice, and I have no problem with letting it float (IE: if your poll shows Clinton+2 on self-reported vote in battlegrounds I don't think that necessarily undermines its credibility) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

These polls do show a significant shift in Biden's direction since their last polls. But one interesting thing about them is that they say they're weighted on 2016 vote choice, yet self-reported 16 vote choice has swung from Trump+2 to Clinton+2. Figure that out https://t.co/f0k7lWla3Z — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trump finally broke his two week streak of no surveys showing him within 5 points of his '16 performance, thanks to a wave of these new Change Research polls this morning. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trump by 1 in the DMR/Selzer poll of Iowa. That's a 9 point worse for Trump than their last poll, but better than I would have guessed after they found Ernst trailing and Dems up on the generic ballot https://t.co/n2ToOLPjWa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you count Ohio, it has a lower 4 year college grad share as well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you count Ohio, that's less educated than Michigan too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yeah, you might not guess that a state with a large metro area and several prominent college universities/towns would have lower college grad RVs than Wisconsin or even Iowa. But NV is the only plausible battleground with a lower share of college grads https://t.co/WMcPF30TCh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Something that's easy to forget: of the big top tier battleground states, Michigan is the state where college graduates make up the smallest share of registered voters, including among white voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(It is also a really low-quality survey--far less rigorous than the CNN/SSRS poll--and not really worth your attention) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Hendrix College poll of Arkansas--the one cited by a Trump lawyer to dispute the last CNN/SSRS poll--is the single worst poll of the cycle for the president (it is the one on the veryyy bottom-right corner) https://t.co/Oe9LOMU8be — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JennaEllisEsq: Hey @brianstelter ... still wanna stand by CNN’s junk science? None of the polls except yours show such false numbers. h… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, for starters, the very limited demographic data betrays that the pollster has made appx. zero effort to ensure a representative sample https://t.co/MPI4ATEaa7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That terrible Arkansas poll out today, showing Trump up 2 https://t.co/rmm3YvP49D — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And here's what that looks like in chart form, with the horizontal line marking my semi-arbitrary threshold for mediocrity (Trump doing 5 pts worse than '16), and a vertical line on 6/2, when those Marist/Emerson polls entered the field https://t.co/UZYszqjUUq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Refreshing my memory: the last polls that could be construed as merely 'mediocre' for Trump, IMO, were the Marist and Emerson College polls conducted 6/2-6/3. Since then, we've had 18 straight state/national polls with Trump underperforming his '16 result by at least 5 points — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Just saying https://t.co/TssR4ACb8z — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Could this be a fleeting low point for Trump? Yeah, quite possible. But the state of play, as of today, is basically Carter '80. Now it wasn't Carter '80 five months ago, and it may not be Carter '80 in five more months. But the state of play today is clear enough — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This week, we have polls (of greatly varying quality) showing Biden within single digits in TN, AR, MO. It sure seems like we're about to have a top-tier poll with Biden ahead in Iowa. Virtually all of the week's national polls put Biden up more than 8, and mostly Biden >10 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yeah, the poll's bad. But I don't even remember the last time there was a poll that I thought could be construed as merely 'mediocre' for Trump https://t.co/AaiLDlr7vu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: WOAH https://t.co/joQE3DS0fY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @sofiabiologista: Wait what?! https://t.co/5KJGrs0RoN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Last DMR/Selzer poll was Trump+10. Since then, Biden's gained about 10 among white voters in national polls, and Iowa--full of Obama-Trump vote--could swing more toward Biden than most. Trump's on air there. Should be interesting. https://t.co/Ku2ZaE2q1Z — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanMcElwee not a bad idea! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanMcElwee that's interesting, and not what i recalled. and it is true that my view on warren is mainly because of our own data, which we don't have on Harris. as I said, I'm open to the idea that her ratings are also prohibitively bad, and this is at least consistent with the possibility — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanMcElwee Warren's fav/unfav numbers among persuadable voters were prohibitively bad--not WRT to Biden, just in absolute terms. I think it is possible that a relatively well known candidate w/mediocre favs (like Harris) could be in somewhat territory; the others just aren't known enough — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanMcElwee it's possible that a similar analysis would find that a majority of persuadable voters hold an unfavorable view of harris, and she could be disqualified on that basis. even if that were true, it would do nothing to dispel what i wrote about warren — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@skoczela as a fellow presenter unable to register, there's an email with 'AAPOR Conference Final Presenter Details' that appears to include a link to where we can access the Q&A. I'm cautiously optimistic it will work? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@skoczela @VTpollster @AAPOR Same, I guess. In the past they've had same day registration, which I've taken advantage of, so it's a little ridiculous — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@LPDonovan @DemFromCT it's pretty bad for a 7 pt lead — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @kwcollins: Key point by @Nate_Cohn: "Weight by education" means very different things to different pollsters. https://t.co/UoE9LD0zKP… — PolitiTweet.org