Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Also it has always struck me that the two incumbents who have mounted late comebacks—Truman and Ford—had not previously been elected president — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @AsteadWesley: NEW: More from NYT/Siena polling. A newfound majority of US voters are embracing tenets of the Black Lives Matter movemen… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@AlexMRapp try again — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If Puerto Rico and DC had been states and all of their elected officials were Democrats, then the GOP in 2016 would have won: --the presidency --the House --the Senate https://t.co/0SEhSbisOo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I assume that the Trump campaign will be sending a memo to the Trump campaign explaining that their polls in OH/IA/GA are skewed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MediumBuying: Donald J. Trump for President, Inc. is placing its first TV ad spending in Georgia. Start date is tomorrow, 6/27 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There isn't enough polling to put NE02 at number one or something, but on paper it could be https://t.co/HO2YyPsM6m — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jerroach (this data shows the same thing as my take from two weeks ago. it includes solid Dem nonvoters; if you go to persuadables--the group I was talking about--Warren's underwater) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@manearlwich no, i just used a broader group of voters besides the persuadable ones (including say, solid biden voters who didn't vote in 2016) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@manearlwich this represents a weakening in Warren's position since October — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

She represents 1/27th of the state. I wouldn't expect anyone to know who she is, much in the same way that I wouldn't expect anyone to know the House Rep from Buffalo or something here in NY https://t.co/d5sLdp34SL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

She represents 1/29th of Florida. I wouldn't expect anyone to know her right now, much as I don't expect anyone in NY to know a random the name of the House Rep from Buffalo or something https://t.co/d5sLdp34SL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Among these key voters for Biden: Warren 49-37 Harris 49-21 Whitmer 36-15 Abrams 33-10 Demings 15-9 Baldwin (WI only) 63-24 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One narrower group of voters to consider are Biden target voters, who I'll define here as battleground state voters who did not vote for Hillary Clinton (whether due to staying home, third party or Trump) but say they're backing Biden or that there's some chance they will — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should note that the non-Warren/Harris candidates, and particularly Abrams, are much much better known by Democrats than Republicans, and that explains their lopsided ratings to a large extent — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the battleground states, voter fav/unfav on the vice presidential candidates is fairly similar: Warren 41-41 Harris 35-30 Abrams 28-19 Demings 13-8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To the extent public opinion is a factor, the vice presidential race would seem to be fairly wide open https://t.co/dZ4OdcNt0b https://t.co/GVHRimlifa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten all i see here is a single digit race in key battleground states — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Some numbers https://t.co/GzwEN60RBk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @timothypmurphy: McSally down nine is tied for her best result since March https://t.co/FiWVXedQQq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Andrew__Roth: What appears to be a Panzer III being sacrificed before the Russian military's new cathedral on Victory Day https://t.co/… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Notice, btw, we don't have quite so many undecided voters as in our toplines. That could mean that our higher levels of undecided voters is partly due to properly representing nonvoters, who are far likelier to be undecided and usually underrepresented in polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

An outtake that I thought could be chart worthy, but decided against, is comparing our poll results among validated '16 voters to how validated 2016 voters say they voted in '16. These are the same respondents, so you're looking at how they say they've changed https://t.co/kQPlXprYeN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In terms of the individual states, I wouldn't spend *too* much time dwelling on each. At N=650 each, you get real noise. Maybe NC's too Biden; maybe AZ's too Trump. Totally possible, and that kind of noise is expected here. But taken together, the story is clear. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And at the moment, there are limits to what Trump can hope to extract out of the electorate right now. 55% of registered voters said there was "almost no chance" they would support him. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The voters who don't back Trump/Biden do lean GOP by registration/party ID. They voted for Trump in '16 by a 34-20 margin, as well. But they're undecided for a reason: Trump's approval rating among this group is 29-56, and he's got a long way to go toward winning them — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The shift among white voters is concentrated among young and col+ white voters, but it extends to older and white voters without a degree, as well. Maybe more surprising: virtually zero change among nonwhite voters, despite attention on racial issues — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In many ways, the poll is unchanged since October. The Democratic party ID advantage remains at D+1. Voters say they backed Trump by 2.5 in '16. Biden's favorability rating is unchanged. Yet the president's lead among white voters has all but vanished, at least for now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Democrats also hold an edge in several contested race for U.S. Senate AZ: Kelly+9 MI: Peters+10 NC: Cunningham+3 Cooper (D)+11 in NCGOV https://t.co/oMji4rNOG3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Joe Biden opens up a considerable 9 point lead across the battleground states likeliest to decide the presidency MI: Biden+11 WI: Biden+11 PA: Biden+10 NC: Biden+9 AZ: Biden+7 FL: Biden+6 https://t.co/OTskdebCrM — PolitiTweet.org