Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @TheSuburbsGuy: @FiveThirtyEight Is this what I think it is? https://t.co/S6OPNf6kox — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @igorbobic: Thom Tillis’ message at the (virtual) NCGOP convention: “The stakes are very high this election, but you know why I know we’… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We also have some pretty robust evidence that Trump was far, far less popular in '18 in MT than in TN, and perhaps even today (Civiqs). In the exit, Trump's approval was at +3 in MT (basically the same as the AZ/FL/TX/OH group!) v. +19 in TN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

They've voted to reelect a Dem senator in '12 and '18. They voted for *this* Democratic governor in '12 and '16. Even that MT00 House race last fall was a mere R+4.7. There's just no way anything like this could have happened in TN, and probably not within double digits of it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

IDK, MT has a much more robust and recent track record of voting for Democrats, including their nominee in this contest https://t.co/oWwFJo1zzX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We’re well past the point where these count as relatively strong numbers for Trump — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ZekeJMiller: WASHINGTON (AP) — Visiting military hospital, Trump wears a mask in public for first time during pandemic. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: Just as revealing were Trump's defensive buys last week: He only spent $150K in Michigan, entirely in the GR-Kalamazoo marke… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: NEW: Biden is facing rising pressure to go big, maximize this cycle -Texas Dems made their case on conf call w Biden brass T… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Noahpinion: Much of our coronavirus disaster can be laid at Trump's feet. But the disinformation about masks was a very broad-based and… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ireneand4js @gtconway3d indeed. it's not much exaggeration to say he was basically against dday — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @adamnagourney: A critical Trump challenge: His scramble to define and discredit Biden before the fall. via @NYTimes https://t.co/AdyFYG… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And as in WW2, the inaction positions work against their intent. The do nothing/live with it view is basically appeasement that ensures COVID spreads to an extent we can't live with. Dealing with COVID helps the economy, just as war production helped the economy despite rationing — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The point is: Trump could have been in a vastly stronger political position, even with COVID/economy just as bad. At this point, improvement would involve a change in either conditions or his conduct. At the moment, I don't see good signs for him on either front. 4 months to go. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ohiodem4biden @DemFromCT @RachelBitecofer anyway, you're welcome to disagree that the race was competitive in march. i suppose that's up for debate. your read of the incentives is 100% backward, and your read of my motives insulting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ohiodem4biden @DemFromCT @RachelBitecofer ....no, if i just said trump was doomed every day i'd get way more clicks and follows. when i say the race is close my feed fills up with people like you! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ohiodem4biden @DemFromCT @RachelBitecofer i get way more clicks/RTs etc with bad news for trump, i promise — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Since there's a new book out comparing Churchill/Trump, I'll posit that there's a book to write comparing Cuomo/Churchill but, in a surprising turn, arguing that they were both terrible lol — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

None of this was inevitable. The same war that cost Chamberlain power made Churchill a world historic figure. Indeed, many governors and world leaders are quite popular right now. That includes officials who handled COVID quite poorly, just as Churchill often handled WW2 poorly — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

None of this was inevitable. The same war that cost Chamberlain power made Churchill a world historic figure. Indeed, many governors are quite popular right now and so are many world leaders. This includes officials who handled COVID quite poorly, much as Churchill did — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ohiodem4biden @DemFromCT @RachelBitecofer i make the same amount of money either way, and if the race goes back to biden+5 among RVs, i'll be right back here saying that it's a competitive race. that's not what it is right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

COVID is *not* WW2. But the comparison is illuminating. His early comments read like Chamberlain. His fights with govs are like haggling over whether Hawaii should buy defenses for Pearl Harbor. His economy position is like being worried that rationing will hurt civilian economy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you're struggling to make sense of how Trump has fallen so far, and how he could fall further, then take this analogy further: imagine that this was the president's handling of an actual armed conflict? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Earlier in the crisis it was commonplace to compare COVID to a wartime threat. Politically, the analogy has some merit: it's hard to think of anything other than war/terrorism that has so easily supplanted the economy as the most important issue. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Today, these possible sources for change seem very distant. Cases are increasing and it is at least possible that deaths will surge again. Yet Trump remains focused on other issues and his demand for a return to normal seems grounded in the assumption that COVID isn't serious — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

When I'm thinking about how the race could change--say, return to Biden+6--I'm thinking about whether those conditions change. Does coronavirus subside or become less salient? Does the public's view of the president's handling improve; or, first, does POTUS change his handling? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So when I'm thinking about what it would mean for the race to change--say, return to 6 pt race lead from March--I'm thinking about whether those condition change. Does coronavirus subside or become less salient? Does the public's view of the president's handling of it improve? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Sometimes, American politics is complicated. Right now, it's extremely simple: the public has reached a harshly negative judgment of the president's handling of the most important issue facing the country, and the issue is so paramount that there's little room to wiggle out of it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ABC: BREAKING: Approval of Pres. Trump's oversight of the COVID-19 crisis has reached a new low since @ABC News/Ipsos began surveying o… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NHC_Atlantic: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located just east of North Carolina, at 5 pm EDT. — PolitiTweet.org