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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @aedwardslevy: that shaking hands meme where it's the fundamentals forecasters and the poll-based forecasters agreeing over their distas… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@RachelBitecofer @nytopinion https://t.co/D8XNIUkbzg — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
What's the theory for why she'd run so far behind Trump, rather than ahead of Trump as one would usually expect--especially right now? Even the Selzer poll that showed her down a few months ago had her approval at +9. It just doesn't really add up to me. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
I get that the polls say IA SEN is a tossup, but I just don't think it makes *that* much sense. It's not a tossup in the presidential race--including per Crystal Ball--and she's an incumbent. So how does this wind up as a tossup? https://t.co/vzSDeVnwji — PolitiTweet.org
Center for Politics @Center4Politics
Crystal Ball: Ranking the top dozen most vulnerable Senate seats, with rating changes in Georgia and Iowa… https://t.co/gT4QHklory
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @jon_m_rob: This is the polling of the super PAC that made a $2.5 million anti-Biden Michigan ad buy's college education electorate esti… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
The keys thing is always a bit dumb, but here Biden is favored by the margin of Licthman's subjective conclusion that Donald Trump--reality TV star with devoted following--is not charismatic https://t.co/DWqU5nNPVw — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @jbarro: It does show how it’s weird that high schools emphasize calculus over statistics in their advanced tracks though. https://t.co/… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @MonmouthPoll: COMING TOMORROW: Iowa: 2020 #GeneralElection poll @realDonaldTrump @JoeBiden; US Senate race @SenJoniErnst @GreenfieldI… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @JakeSherman: THE POSTMASTER GENERAL will meet tomorrow with Schumer, pelosi, meadows and mnuchin. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@SeanTrende @NickRiccardi circling back, since we got our first live national poll in a few weeks yday from the firm that does the fox poll. here's what that chart looks like now, with live plummeting near to the average (obviously highly sensitive with such little data). https://t.co/voJlL7FJ2K — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @jon_m_rob: We collaborated with @Nate_Cohn on a piece about this trend...in 2016! https://t.co/ZnswjHIJIM https://t.co/T124ZgB37W http… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@HotlineJosh @byelin it may not be a result you expect or believe, but it's not an outlier — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@HotlineJosh @byelin it could be wrong, but I don't think it's an outlier exactly https://t.co/n9sE74In0F — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @derekwillis: I know the NYT is doing well financially but I did not expect this level of generosity: https://t.co/JSAu3gx7bf — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@SeanTrende @NickRiccardi (i also didn't mention that these are trendline adjusted as well, and the IVR trend will weigh on the overall number though not the others) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@SeanTrende @NickRiccardi change since 7/1: Live: -0.12 Online: -0.12 IVR: -1.5 Overall: -.53, with biggest change being the relative weight of live phone polls, which has steadly declined since we haven't had any in weeks — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@SeanTrende @NickRiccardi and all LV adjusted — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@SeanTrende @NickRiccardi this includes trendline adjustment, house effects, and weights (just using 1/predicted 538 abs error by pollster). all polls with a live component count as live; all polls with any ivr component are IVR — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@SeanTrende @NickRiccardi here's what the poll averages would look like to me if you split the polls into three groups: live (blue), online (red), ivr (green) https://t.co/yWteBXJ3zX — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@SeanTrende @NickRiccardi there's only so much you can do if you only have recent data from one mode, and you have trendline adjustment on the assumption that shifts are interchangable controlling for house effects — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@supwithbates @SeanTrende i don't think about the rasmussen poll — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@NickRiccardi @SeanTrende and there are no live interview polls in the RCP average right now — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@SeanTrende idk, i don't see any non-rasmssen tightening. the rest of it could just as easily be changes in exactly which polls we're getting (what, 4 live interview national polls in july?) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Yes, though most of the new names under consideration represent the same constituency. Warren is the only pick who could obviously fall into this category https://t.co/WUl9nNmT2F — PolitiTweet.org
O.T. Ford @ot_ford
@Nate_Cohn #VP speculation and -coverage- of the selection process almost always omit what seems a key fact to me:… https://t.co/CswBx5AiWg
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
TLDR: not sure we have a ton of reason to think something's off in this process. I can see why the late emergence of Bass plus skepticism toward Harris could be interpreted that way, but that's hardly the only interpretation — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Anyway, I'm interested to hear the hard evidence for why we should think something's off right now. To me, the late rise of Karen Bass + opposition to Harris would have to be the core argument, but you have to make some interpretive jumps about what these things really mean — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
What else is unusual? I don't have much. I don't find the opposition to Harris--that we know of--to be far out of norm. It may be fairly narrow, even if vocal. What would be unusual and a problem: if Harris has no real backers in this debate. But I don't think we know that. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
So to me this argument is no slam dunk, even if it's a plausible interpretation. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
*On the other hand* many come very close to conventional qualification. Only Bottoms plainly falls short, and she's probably least likely of the bunch. Rice is fairly normal--maybe she's a House run/win away. Demings and Bass only have the House, but that's not unprecedented — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
One could argue that this supports the 'pessimistic' interpretation, since expanding the list to candidates without typical national political expeirence gives the impression of looking *really* hard for something that you're struggling to find. — PolitiTweet.org
