Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Big day of polls continues, and it's a stronger hour for Biden, with him doing as well or better than pre-convention polling in Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP and YouGov/Economist — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NateSilver538: Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points: 0-1 points: just 6%! 1-2 points: 22% 2… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Agreed https://t.co/Dylb2yBygM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And as we collect more state polling, the state of the Electoral College v. the national vote will be a critical question. This PA poll is plausibly consistent with a continued, relative edge for Trump; it's also just one poll, and potentially a relatively weak result for Biden — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here again, we're left with the same basic questions we face nationwide: the result is consistent with tightening, yet Biden still ahead even at what *could* be a high point for Trump. It'll be interesting to see what things look like in a few weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The steep trendline here isn't a huge surprise, as the last poll was arguably Biden's very best result of the cycle. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden+4 among RVs in Pennsylvania, per Monmouth, down from +13 in July. A narrower 1 or 3 point lead among LVs, depending on the turnout model. https://t.co/BHoox6frAh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On the other hand, a 7 pt deficit does keep the president within striking distance, given the possibility of further change, polling error, and the E.C. edge. We'll get some clarity on the E.C. when we finally get some state polls, starting w Monmouth in PA later today — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Even if the president's gains do stick, a 7 pt national deficit is probably not something for the president to feel great about, even stipulating that he could better off in the key E.C. states. For perspective, this is still basically better for Biden than any day from 3/15-6/1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

These polls were taken immediately after the RNC, so this is prime 'bounce' territory. It could represent a highwater mark for Trump, and that would not be promising news for him. But it could stick if it's driven by durable changes in issue salience. We'll have to wait and see. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We already have a lot of polls out this morning, and they add up to a fairly clear snapshot (along with polls earlier in the week): Biden's still comfortably head, maybe up 7; Trump probably picked up a couple of points v. pre-convention — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

really! you'll have to wait until after they're done https://t.co/ioIMGEzJF8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I am always here for Point Roberts coverage https://t.co/Oc2u3Jrrfv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Seems like we're getting a pretty good polling day tomorrow. Selzer just sent out a press release for a national poll in the AM. Monmouth will have PA. Wouldn't surprise me if there was more, as well. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But like, look, Markey could easily get 2-to-1 margin out of Middlesex, he'll undoubtedly win the Berkshire counties, and there's just not really much Kennedy can do to cancel it out. It's the wrong state for this coalition — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, there are caveats. In the COVID era, we've always go to be extra cautious about vote method. Maybe this is all election day vote, and maybe the mail vote isn't counted and it'll be good for Kennedy--just making up an example. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, there are caveats. In the COVID area, we've always go to be extra cautious about vote method. Maybe this is all election day vote, and maybe the mail vote isn't counted and it'll be good for Kennedy--just making up an example. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Massachusetts Dem. Senate primary update: a third of the counted vote is from Worcester and the blue collar-backed candidate is still losing. This is not really on track to be close right now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well what's the definition of a blowout? https://t.co/FojUq54HNx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The real issue, though, is that they just haven't said how they make these decisions, which allows them to do what they want, whether in terms of the cutoff dates or the qualifying pollsters. It is hard to take seriously as a result — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The real issue, though, is that they just haven't said how they make these decisions, and it is pretty obvious that there's not a long of consistency, whether in terms of the cutoff dates or the qualifying pollsters. It is hard to take seriously as a result — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's also possible that there's something in between: they decided a long time ago that the online polls need to be judged on a case by case basis, because of varying quality, and the media sponsored ones are presumptively in, while bias weighs on which ones are out — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's also possible there's something in between: the decided a long time ago that the online polls need to be judged on a case by case basis, because of varying quality, and the media sponsored ones are presumptively in, while bias weighs on which ones are out — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The alternative theory is that RCP discriminates, at least subtly or perhaps outright shamelessly, against Democratic-leaning online firms, but keeps GOP tilting outfits of dubious quality. Reuters? Out. USC? not anymore! Morning Consult? Only when it suits. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But it does come pretty close to fitting. They do post YouGov/Economist, Morning Consult/Politico, CNBC/Charge, LAT/USC, and so on, but not those same online firms on their own. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My best theory: long ago, RCP decided to only post online polls with a media/univ. sponsor, as a check against the varying quality of the emerging online polls. It comes close to fitting, but not quite: Reuters is a big hole. https://t.co/zh854Hkdjq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And an honorable mention since it was guessed a lot, and justifiably: DFP, which has less than 30 polls but most certainly did beat the average of other polls this spring — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The last one you're not going to guess: Dan Jones and Associates! I think this is a case where basically all of the races involve virtually no competition, even though they have quite a few polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

PPP is 7. One more https://t.co/wK6iC8xb7G — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trafalgar makes 6 (not USC, Emerson, or Rasmussen, which I also see guessed) https://t.co/lG7rGfxG0A — PolitiTweet.org