Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I can come up with several reasons why, hypothetically, PA would be closer in the polls / closer on eday. Before I go into it, I want to be clear: I can come up with arguments the other way too--why PA could be Biden's best! And I am not arguing either way. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I get asked about this a lot, and I agree with this take. But I also sometimes get asked a followup: could it be true, and if, it were true, why would it be true? https://t.co/j4AoW1lLbE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Then, the final catch! Some of these polls are actually a bit old. Only the PA poll is after the RNC. That's Trump's best poll of the bunch, but it's also the only poll that shows no change in the race Biden's support. So have fun with that — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Before they had some of the strangest/worst education results I can remember, but now the question actually makes sense and so do the results https://t.co/FLwabQGxjI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said! They now appear to be properly weighting by education, which would be expected to take a toll on Biden's lead a bit. So maybe this should be interpreted as no real change / the result should be taken more seriously than before — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The catch is that the polls have a pretty solid Dem house effect so far this cycle, and on balance the results represent a modest dip in Biden's standing earlier in the month--let alone from earlier in the summer. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One polling note today: a series of Hodas (R) polls show Biden doing quite well in MI/PA/WI, but there's a catch--and then... maybe another catch that undoes the catch. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It begins https://t.co/VVl9Ig9tMC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @christinezhang: 6/ Three pollsters who now weight by education — Chris Borick of @Muhlenberg, @mbpolisci of @UNFPORL, & @MikePNoble of… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict @Barnes_Law @538politics @NateSilver538 @ForecasterEnten i think my main recollection of this guy is that he thought the early voting data in CA was good for republicans, which was really something — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So far this year, Biden leads among Hispanic voters in Quinnipiac national polls by just 16 points, 50 to 34. Biden leads among Hispanic voters by twice as much in other national polls, 60 to 29 percent — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

dk. most of the national RDD polls are essentially interchangable in terms of their demographic tabs, but Quinnipiac is not. Fox and NBC/WSJ are RBS samples, and they may use quotas or make various choices that can risk some subgroup biases https://t.co/32VPYgorIO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Quinnipiac, despite an overall left lean, has a GOP House effect on their Hispanic crosstab (though not their last FL poll, interestingly). There are lots of patterns like this out there: Fox never finds a large white education gap, for instance. https://t.co/4k0EInZZe1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: One emerging narrative I’ve been skeptical of: “WI is still strong for Biden but PA is tightening.” A lot of state polling… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden by 3 in FL and 8 in PA among LVs, according to new Quinnipiac polls. In theory it's a fine result for Biden, but the firm has been pretty left-leaning this year his average 5.5 point lead here is quite a bit weaker than his 10 point lead in their national poll — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should note that it is possible that Trump has made real gains in PA. There was a Muhlenberg poll with Biden+4 in PA pre-convention, for instance. That's big if true. But with so little recent polling, the national poll-based prior still suggests Biden's *probably ok* still — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It starts to make that PA poll yesterday look like something of a mini-outlier? Not a statistcal outlier--maybe it's only a couple of points off the 'average,' if we could have one. But one that, taken in isolation, depicts a meaningfully different picture. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden by 2 in NC, according to Monmouth. A solid result for Biden that's pretty consistent with those 7-8 point national leads. Not even vastly different than Fox. https://t.co/emavFhgzaT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the Monmouth NC poll is good for Biden, I think we can *probably* say the PA poll was something of a mini-outlier. Not an outlier in any statistical sense--maybe just a point or two--but enough to matter for interpretive purposes, given the sensitivity of the overall picture — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Other than the Fox polls, most of the post-convention battleground state polls are pretty meh for Biden. Of course, most of them are pretty meh in quality--except Monmouth PA. As a result, I'll be really curious to see this NC poll from Monmouth. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Part of the issue is that we weren't even *super* clear on where Biden stood in the tipping points, before the RNC. I think it was quite clear he had a big, meaty lead in June. By mid-August? I don't know. We just didn't have many polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At this point, I think it's pretty clear that Biden's national lead is pretty intact, at least with respect to where it stood before the convention. The big question, IMO, is just where exactly he stands in the Electoral College tipping points. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @freedlander: Rick Snyder, GOP gov of Michigan from 2011-2019 days he is voting for Biden: “Donald Trump is a bully who lacks a moral co… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's been a big day of polls, and Biden closes it out strong: --Fox has Biden up by 8 and 9 in WI, AZ, up 4 in NC, all among LVs. --CNN/SSRS has Biden up 8 among national RVs. Quinnipiac with Biden up 10 among LVs. Other than Monmouth, not many signs of a big shift post-RNC. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden+9 in AZ, Biden+8 in WI, Biden+4 in AZ, according to new Fox News surveys of likely voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Two more national polls this afternoon: CNN/SSRS is Biden+8 among RVs; Quinnipiac is Biden+10 among LVs. Not really a shift from either poll https://t.co/0VXt0Ulsmg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, obviously, if we got ten polls of PA/WI/MI or whatever and the average is Biden+2.5 then that won't be true anymore. But that's not where we're at right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think we have one serious state poll: an N=400 state poll showing Biden running 5 points behind the US in a state where Clinton ran 3 points behind the US. That's not material, given the number of polls and the N https://t.co/Z3hHS9lerw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@benyt @EricLevitz maybe an evening edition, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@benyt @EricLevitz i would opt into a world where twitter did not exist and i could just wait until the next morning before I received a document containing a summary of all of yesterday's polls — PolitiTweet.org