Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Sep 03 15:04:54 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should note that it is possible that Trump has made real gains in PA. There was a Muhlenberg poll with Biden+4 in PA pre-convention, for instance. That's big if true. But with so little recent polling, the national poll-based prior still suggests Biden's *probably ok* still — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It starts to make that PA poll yesterday look like something of a mini-outlier? Not a statistcal outlier--maybe it's only a couple of points off the 'average,' if we could have one. But one that, taken in isolation, depicts a meaningfully different picture. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden by 3 in FL and 8 in PA among LVs, according to new Quinnipiac polls. In theory it's a fine result for Biden, but the firm has been pretty left-leaning this year his average 5.5 point lead here is quite a bit weaker than his 10 point lead in their national poll — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 3, 2020 Hibernated