Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This GQR (Dem firm) result in Florida (Biden+5) still shows some very meaningful narrowing among Hispanic voters--including non-Cuban Hispanics https://t.co/kOg6ArDu00 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I googled AFFH to see whether it should be a poll question. Can't really imagine much use in asking whether you support or oppose "AFFH, a legal requirement that federal agencies and federal grantees actively address and work to eliminate housing discrimination and segregation" — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yeah, FL is not necessarily the weird one here https://t.co/nz2PXYpJza — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Marquette Poll in WI will be another interesting test on this front. It won't answer any questions, but a clear finding either way--whether it's a tight race or Biden plus 8 or something--would certainly be a weighty chip on the ledger — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yet interestingly, none of those Fox results have really been contradicted. Instead, there's a bunch of tight results in states other than where Fox polled. With so few polls, this could all be noise. Or it could mean Biden's doing well in WI/AZ/NC but not FL/PA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Thinking back over all of the post-convention polling, the Fox polls play a really big role in shaping our interpretation of whether and to what extent Trump managed to tighten the race in the battlegrounds. Most of the other state polling hasn't been as rosy for Biden — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ElectProject: It is abundantly clear from even a cursory analysis of the primary data posted by the Georgia Secretary of State's office… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It was always a non-zero possibility https://t.co/3B87Er1iSq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A strong result for Trump, and it follows on a Quinnipiac result that was also pretty consistent with a tied race when accounting for the house effect https://t.co/ohXaJh8V4J — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ElectProject: Here is just a small taste of the data reliability of the ballot cancelled reasons for the 69,917 Georgians who were issu… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris you wouldn't be calling a 4 pt improvement small if it was him going from 44 to 48 nationwide! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris methods haven't really changed for the polls collected here. and that's a colossal mistake. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris you're the one who was comparing polls to polls! but yes, comparing polls to polls is definitely better than the post-election exits and MRP, as it's a) apples to apples and; b) we're mainly looking at polls of RVs, which is a more Dem nonwhite universe than LVs/voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris sorry, read the wrong column: the 23/18 was among all nonwhite voters. it's 27/23 among hispanics (excluding quinnipiac, which isn't in the '16 data); 29/23 with quinnipiac — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris across 'the polls,' though before this particular survey, trump is up to 23 percent of the hispanic vote among RVs, up from 18 in final 2016 polls. he's at 8 percent of black voters, up from 5 percent in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris this is one poll. look at all of them if you want to characterize the polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris this is wrong — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

should say *a* tipping point state — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Back in 2018, a similar result in Miami-Dade was *just* enough for Scott/DeSantis to squeak out a narrow victory while doing worse than Trump elsewhere in the state. It's quite possible the 2020 FL map looks quite a bit like 2018, regardless of the winner — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Democratic weakness (relative to '16) in Miami-Dade has been evident for a while, but this is a particularly tough poll result for Biden in a county that makes up ~10% of the tipping point state https://t.co/fgr5nwou7s — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Interestingly, you'd get a 1/7 shot if you thought there were independent 50/50 chances of both conditions (improving fundamentals + 2018 poll error) and you thought Trump would be narrowly favored (57% to win, to be exact) should both materialize https://t.co/LYP5B9HcIK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @amyewalter And I certainly don't think of the IN/MO Senate polling--at least the public polling--as dead-on — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@arnonmishkin it may not be! maybe the economy/china/trade is a better option than protestors bad + biden is a stealth leftist. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

All together, the polls just don't really support that this is a great strategy for Trump. If it was, shouldn't this be a good moment for Trump in WI? Shouldn't white voters be the relative strength? Shouldn't he poll well on the issue? It just doesn't line up. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Back in the winter/spring and all the way back to 2018, there were plenty of polls showing that the president was highly competitive and even leading in Wisconsin. Those polls are largely gone--even as the president embraces a strategy purportedly targeted at that state — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And it's not like there's evidence that the president is weak among white voters *in spite* of an otherwise popular message on race, or something. The polls show, over and over, that the president is relatively weak on race, criminal justice, protests, and prefer Biden — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But the polls say that white voters are actually the president's biggest weakness right now, at least compared to 2016. That includes white rural voters. It includes white voters without a degree. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And I think I basically share that assumption. If the president's not going to win in this way, how else is he going to do it? Flip NV... NM? Get back to 2016 levels among white college graduates? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My colleagues today summarize that assumption about the president's path here: win in the relatively white, working class Midwest by polarizing the electorate along racial lines https://t.co/UsvZ6mcpV0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One interesting--and perhaps extremely telling--thing about the race is that there's a big disconnect between the way the Trump team (and maybe everyone) thinks Trump can win, and his actual relative strengths at the moment https://t.co/FdEvVJq7BF — PolitiTweet.org