Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Tue Sep 08 12:08:35 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Democratic weakness (relative to '16) in Miami-Dade has been evident for a while, but this is a particularly tough poll result for Biden in a county that makes up ~10% of the tipping point state https://t.co/fgr5nwou7s — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Interestingly, you'd get a 1/7 shot if you thought there were independent 50/50 chances of both conditions (improving fundamentals + 2018 poll error) and you thought Trump would be narrowly favored (57% to win, to be exact) should both materialize https://t.co/LYP5B9HcIK — PolitiTweet.org

At this point I'd probably put Trump's chances at 1-in-7 or so. Curious what people think is the best argument for… https://t.co/ieACC490PL

Posted Sept. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Back in 2018, a similar result in Miami-Dade was *just* enough for Scott/DeSantis to squeak out a narrow victory while doing worse than Trump elsewhere in the state. It's quite possible the 2020 FL map looks quite a bit like 2018, regardless of the winner — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 8, 2020 Hibernated