Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @samstein: @Nate_Cohn The campaign announcement this morning said it was ME2, I believe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It'd be interested to know whether this is more about ME or ME2. ME isn't very different than MN/NV in '16, but ME02 is possibly a huge vulnerability: one of the oldest, whitest places in the country, with a huge trump swing/third party vote '16 https://t.co/OzTsRRbphY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We will basically always have polls going on, debate nights and day or two around them as exception https://t.co/9OLwlZA2mG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MonmouthPoll @realDonaldTrump @JoeBiden @GovRonDeSantis if red brevard, blue broward is any indication, this is going to be a wild result — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MonmouthPoll: COMING TOMORROW: Florida: 2020 #GeneralElection matchup between @realDonaldTrump and @JoeBiden. State #BallotMeasures on… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @UpshotNYT: https://t.co/mFknJQofhR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mlthusky @jon_m_rob both — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @christinezhang weird — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob when did they have it 'fixed'? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ChazNuttycombe surprised you don't want a CO-03 tracking poll — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob (and not that this is exonerating, but i don't think this is a state where it's a huge deal to get your education split wrong) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob it's been that bad the whole time, but the trendline is interesting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

OHPI has Biden by 10 in Arizona. Polling in the state has felt borderline counter-cyclical this year: Biden didn't take off here when he gained nationwide over the summer; Trump probably putting even worse numbers in the last few weeks https://t.co/1m8Og0lBC9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To the handful of you tweeting about the AR-02 poll today, I'll just remind you that this firm is responsible for Biden's 'best' poll of the cycle https://t.co/w3DKgN9rCs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @RossRichendrfer: Is this good? https://t.co/DmQDj3K494 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SienaResearch: New @nytimes/@SienaResearch poll of likely voters in key swing states (MN, NV, NH, WI): By huge margins, Dems say racism… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, I'm most certainly not saying he's going to do that. Who knows! But I do think it's quite keeping with what he's done in the past, and it wouldn't be ruled out by his inaction to this point--to the contrary, they'd have every reason not to move until the last second — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's really no reason at this stage why Bloomberg couldn't do the 2020 equiv of 2018: pump 400m into TX/GA/OH/Miami media market or something over the final three weeks. And if he was going to do that, why would he say so now? That would be a colossal mistake — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But there's also no reason they can't still do the 2018 move: identify the places where a) ad spending is most limited, b) where you think you think a push can get you over, and then strike overwhelmingly, as late as possible. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That's quite different, of course, than the Bloomberg 20 primary: just blanket the ad for five months before Super Tuesday. And there's no reason they couldn't have done that in the general, and go on air in the big six in June or something — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Bloomberg playbook in '18 often involved striking very late. Most of the time, they didn't show their hand until they played it. And why should they? There's plenty of evidence that late ads are most effective. Striking late means no opportunity to organize a counter. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I have no idea what Bloomberg will do in the end, but I'll just note that there's not necessarily much reason to assume that this is it. https://t.co/1ocCzJ04jx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SienaResearch: New @nytimes/@SienaResearch poll of likely voters in key swing states: Voters in MN, NH, WI are virtually evenly divided… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SienaResearch: Biden Favorability Rating Outpaces Trump’s in All Four States - https://t.co/s22nKhChfr @JoeBiden leads @realDonaldTru… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you look at the tabs, you'll see that there is some important ticket splitting going on, with Lewis faring better in the MSP metro and Trump faring better in rural areas. Happens to cancel out, but it's not negligible https://t.co/wNX9XsO3tv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Historically, many of them do--though it does reduce their modeled turnout probability https://t.co/zWrbTxLByj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: Believe it or not, this voter exists (and might help decide 2020)... https://t.co/C4NTtX0nfQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @alexburnsNYT: But the poll also found Biden has his own vulnerabilities. He has had good reason to mount a serious defense on public sa… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Gassman3268 https://t.co/RFpEQ4xLc6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you prefer to see it right rather than do the flips in your head (1 is biden; 2 trump) https://t.co/UvqBWsPtQ0 — PolitiTweet.org