Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Our first live interview, education-weighted national survey in a while. Biden+8 with a net-1 point change is better for Biden than both the trendline and the average, so this is some important good news for him https://t.co/ltDtE4bhec — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mmurraypolitics: The major findings of our new national NBC News/WSJ poll: 1. Biden maintains his national lead over Trump. Biden 51%… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@B_M_Finnigan Not entirely out of the question — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's one take: the left does not believe the system has democratic legitimacy. Being honest about that position is pretty important, and it has hugely important consequences for the future of the US https://t.co/JqE4QcaJnT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@neeratanden of course it's not what they said, that's my point! this is really all about something else: raw political power for partisan ends. and that's the topic i want to read about, not all these efforts at rationalization — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So I'd like to read the best takes that really grapple with all of this. Please share if you've seen something good and thoughtful on it! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, that's what this whole debate is really about: what are the limits of the use of constitutional power to advance nakedly partisan objectives at the expense of precedent. On judiciary, there's been 15 years of tit-for-tat retaliation escalation in this area. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'd also be interested to hear the perspective on the right on this: are there any limits here? It sure doesn't seem like it. And if not, why is it so absurd that Democrats would use their power to pack the court? Isn't it just the same logic of raw power politics? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'd like to read the perspective from the left on this basic fact. Obviously, it sucks to be caught on the losing end of this. But the fact that the Senate wants one nominee but not the other is not exactly an inconsequential argument in a Democratic system — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Under the constitution, this is well within their power! They control the Senate, the constitution gives the Senate the power to confirm nominees, and therefore the Senate confirmed the nominee it wanted but not the other. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let's be honest, the Senate didn't act on Garland and might well act on Trump's selection for a simple reason: Republicans didn't want Obama's judge, they do want Trump's judge, and so they may act on one but not the other. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'd be curious to read--from both sides--about a very simple topic when it comes to this Supreme Court debate: raw political power — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For similar reasons, I'm also extremely curious about Alaska. Whether I think we can pull off a high-quality poll there is another question... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is, but I'm reminded of Maine: the 6th oldest state in the country, overwhelmingly white state, an independent third party voting streak. Maybe this is exactly the kind of places Biden should run well ahead of Clinton https://t.co/637rCjFPAW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One last point on our Green Party respondents: most chose the Libertarian candidate in the Governors race (where Libertarians are on the ballot), which gives you an idea of what's really going on here. Without a Libertarian, Green became a generic protest vote option — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In other contests, all with erroneous Green Party candidates: --Trump led Biden by 7, 49 to 42. --Gianforte led the Gov race by 6, 45 to 39 --Surprisingly, Williams (D) led the House race 44-41, with super high Dem fav/unity. But road to 50 will be tough: just 1% Dems undecided — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's important to note that this is not a representative, meaningful sample of Green Party votes. It's only useful for an extremely narrow purpose: trying to game out what these 19 people would have done if we had given them the correct ballot test. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We reinterviewed more than half of Green Party responses in the Senate race: they split 5 Bullock, 4 Daines, 1 DK. Daines retained a 1 point lead. Over all, Green Party votes backed Trump for president, preferred a GOP Senate, but have a more fav view of Bullock than Daines — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We reinterviewed more than half of Green Party responses in the Senate race, and they split 5 Bullock, 4 Daines, 1 DK. Over all, Green Party votes resembled the state: they backed Trump for president, preferred a GOP Senate, but have a more favorable view of Bullock than Daines — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NYT/Siena poll* in Montana shows Daines leading Bullock by 1, 45 to 44, with an asterisk: the poll erroneously lists Green Party candidates. Surprisingly, reinterviews and analysis of their responses suggest Green Party respondents would split evenly. https://t.co/jBxaNgMpq0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We left everything as it was, but we go into some depth on the group and I think it's fairly clear what to make of it https://t.co/37sYe9tsEf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Obviously it sucks to get something like this wrong, but it wound up pretty interesting to scrutinize this tiny group of respondents. Their own explanations are interesting, too, and might affect the way you look at minor party poll responses in the future — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Obviously it sucks to get something like this wrong, but it wound up pretty interesting to scrutinize this tiny group of respondents. Their own explanations are interesting, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Tomorrow, an NYT/Siena poll* of Montana, with an asterisk: we erroneously named Green Party candidates who aren't on the ballot. It's still useful, and we did reinterview most Green Party respondents in the Senate race. But it's an important problem to lead with at the outset. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict Since some of you think i'm actually making fun of these people: I'm just noting that basically all of the Republicans are running behind Trump in the major tossups, except Collins? Daines, McSally, Tillis, Ernst... Graham. Some selection bias, but still — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict i guess you really bought in hard on those ladyg tweets from a few months back! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict there are more direct ways to try and make fun of Tillis! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: Greenfield 45% to Ernst 42% in the Selzer poll https://t.co/GW5e8rVnaG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ChuckGrassley: I assumed deer dead bc it was night and no carcas — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ChuckGrassley: If u lost ur pet pidgin /it’s dead in front yard my Iowa farm JUST DISCOVERED here r identifiers Right leg Blue 2020/308… — PolitiTweet.org