Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Their state polls are off of lists of registered voters--like Times/Siena polls. They're weighted by party and screen on prior turnout. The national polls are random-digit-dialing of all adults, like an ABC/Post poll. They weight on census demos and screen on self-reported reg. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And Monmouth's national polls and state polls simply aren't alike. They're not methodologically comparable. For the purposes of house effects and so on, they may as well be two completely different firms — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't really agree with some of the replies about Monmouth usually tilting to the right, btw. Here are their national numbers so far this cycle: https://t.co/SAxX8Dq4pQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden by 5 among likely voters, per Monmouth, 50 to 45 percent. One of Trump's better national polls, though not meaningfully off of the 7 pt average. https://t.co/OjxboK40J6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@B_M_Finnigan u know we had like 40 interviews in PA in our national poll — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Thing I learned for this: if NE02 was a state, it would have the third highest educational attainment of any state, trailing only Massachusetts and Colorado — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Don Bacon leads Kara Eastman in the NE02 House rematch, 45-43 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden leads Trump in Nebraska's Second District, 48 to 41, according to new NYT/Siena poll https://t.co/WZp6oBmppm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MonmouthPoll: COMING LATER TODAY: National 2020 #GeneralElection. @realDonaldTrump vs @JoeBiden. Plus questions on #SCOTUS vacancy, #Pr… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NE-02 is Nebraska's Second Congressional District. Unlike most states, Nebraska awards its electoral votes by district. Trump carried it narrowly in 2016, and a Biden flip figures prominently in a few prominent scenarios for a narrow Biden win or... an Electoral College tie — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have a couple of polls for you today that wrapped up last night. First up, NE-02 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Green Bay DMA COVID hotspot in October seems plausibly relevant for the election https://t.co/CabJqeHUbo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @peterbakernyt: SCOOP: Trump paid just $750 in federal income taxes in 2016, the year he won. He paid just $750 in 2017, his first year… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: Big ⁦@SherrodBrown⁩ news this am >> “After the debate, Biden is looking to match some of Trump’s frequency of campaign appea… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A lot of this fades if you take all of our polls together. Across all of September (N>7500) we're Biden+4.7 v. Trump approval -4.4 in the states we've polled. That said, the 'approve but not Trump' group stays diverse: 62% white, 19 hispanic, 12% black (v. 74, 9, 8 overall) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the national poll, the group that approves of Trump but isn't voting for him (whether they're Biden or dk/other, and it's about 50/50): 54% white, 24% Hispanic Quite young (just 10% over 65) D+10 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, let's take a look https://t.co/Q6qZBoY1g8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The interesting thing is that neither show Democrats with the commanding party ID edge we've grown accustomed to from the major live interview polls https://t.co/nRr9szfEYY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Interesting to me: ABC/Post is D+1 by party ID; we're R<1. Biden still leads thanks to a ~20 pt lead among independent voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mmurraypolitics: We have new NBC News/Marist polls of Michigan and Wisconsin coming out at 9:00 am ET @MeetThePress, @NBCNews, @MSNBC,… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden leads Trump 49 to 41 percent nationwide, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll https://t.co/D14kMFXrnw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Also, btw, we said last night that we had a national poll coming this weekend. You could have been ahead of the curve! We'll be announcing our poll plans here going forward https://t.co/EWzv48tO2c — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

white no BA 40, nonwhite 29, white BA+ 28 (>3 dk/ref on either race or edu) https://t.co/cZx9GBDPa4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, I'll certainly be interested to see whether ABC/Post and others also show a party ID shift toward the GOP. We've had it in our polling all month, so I do think there might be something to it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

D+9 https://t.co/gORJrqLNMZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And since it's a tradition at this point, your composition of the sample on our national poll: Party ID: R<1 👀 Recalled 2016 vote choice: even — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Should be a big polling day tomorrow. NYT/Siena national poll in the AM. I think we have every reason to expect ABC/Post at midnight; and I'd guess the other news organizations will also have something to add heading into the debate/post-RBG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten I just got a door knock from someone who wanted to know if someone still lived in one of the apartments here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If this is true, it would mean relatively little for the presidential horserace topline. After all, Biden has done quite well in NYT/Siena polls this month, I'd say. And it would (somewhat hilariously) wind up depriving poll unskewers of a favored argument — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And it also would sort of make sense to me? As Trump increasingly defines the GOP, why shouldn't his supporters now ID as GOP--improving GOP strength at the expense of their former edge among independent voters. And maybe Biden's non-campaign deprives Democrats of similar gains — PolitiTweet.org