Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

UMass Lowell/YouGov polls: NH: Biden+8 NC: Tied TX: Trump+3 https://t.co/ijzCr12O80 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@KBAndersen tbh i have no idea were some of these numbers are coming from and the math here is wrong anyway? i have a lot of work to do so i'm not going to dig up the real stuff, but please don't make me respond to things that don't make sense — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@KBAndersen because both of those numbers are wrong — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Heading into the debate, Biden leads by enough to withstanding a repeat of 2016's polling misfire. Of course, the polls could always be worse than last time. They might also be better. https://t.co/ECLyQPqjp3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That you assume Trump's shtick is extremely effective, bc it seemed to work last time, when it doesn't seem to be working at all this time https://t.co/4PQEBkKfs0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, I think the outcome of '16 totally colors everything about how people analyze the superficial dimensions of politics, particularly for Trump. I don't think the reevaluation is 100% wrong, but the polls certainly suggest that there's danger in overcorrection — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And at this point, I do think it's fair to say that many people have internalized an assumption that the Trump act works, because it has before. The polls say something very different. But it's part of how you get people sure he's going to surge because of Kenosha and so on — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Or put differently, if you went through all of 2016 assuming the Trump act was an electoral catastrophe, you would have undoubtedly come away thinking he had blown it yet again. If after the 2016 result you revisit that assumption, you'd undoubtedly reinterpret the debate as well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I found myself thinking that evaluations of Trump are just a reflection of our assumptions about whether Trump's shtick works. Trump was just Trump in the debates. If you thought that was a joke in '16, he was a joke. If now you take it seriously, now it looks effective — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I rewatched and had the same impression. Yet what's interesting is that Clinton was judged the victor at the time. https://t.co/scWnkcFYk7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @cameron_easley: Long after the dust of the conventions have settled, it's pretty clear they had only one lasting impact: Pushing @JoeBi… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We interviewed nearly 9000 voters this month. They backed Biden over Trump, 47 to 42. Validated 2016 voters said they backed Trump over Clinton, 45 to 43. https://t.co/VbPIf58lmZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In a harbinger of a deeply lopsided election night/week count: Biden leads 75-18 among voters who have requested an absentee ballot, while Trump leads by 8 among voters who have not done so — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A few tabs you won't find in the pdf: Trump only holds a 62 to 23 percent lead among registered Republicans in Philly, its suburbs, or Allegheny County (Pittsburgh+burbs) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Vassellitics hopefully clear enough https://t.co/ZnTkyhA3jo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Seems like the crosstabs didn't make it on. they'll linked up in the article in a bit, but you can find them here in the interim https://t.co/OdShGUIA0h — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Obviously, it's a hotter result for Biden than I would have guessed heading into this, and it could just be that. I expect we'll be returning for another reading here in fairly short order. In the interim, it'll be interesting to see what ABC/Post has tonight. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The poll reflects some significant GOP gains in voter registration, and the likely electorate here is just D+4 by registration. But Biden has an overwhelming advantage in the major metropolitan areas, and Trump isn't matching his targets in rural areas, either. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden leads Trump in Pennsylvania, 49 to 40 percent among likely voters, in a new Times/Siena poll https://t.co/86O9lsPzjG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict @kevin_cracknell maybe we can find someone to explain elk county's swing from an obama county to 100-0 for trump — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Aseemru: throwback to this, from 11 years ago https://t.co/x5KFBGtHOe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict thanks to the miracle of weighting, biden has 22% of the three respondents in potter county — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kilometerbryman @B_M_Finnigan i think that's a bit of an illusion? like even a 3:1 trump lead in rural areas still winds up with... a lot more blue biden dots than you're accustomed to on a normal county choropleth math (0 blue) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A nice way to close out before the debate. We'll have NYT/Siena in Pennsylvania tonight, as well https://t.co/vCUAkihsFA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ABCPolitics: TONIGHT: With the first presidential debate hours away, @ABC News and @WashingtonPost have brand new poll numbers from the… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict did you tell them about television advertising? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@B_M_Finnigan ok now what do you think of this version https://t.co/jDvqIQm29O — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@B_M_Finnigan trump doing well in lower bucks https://t.co/7D3W2HaVwn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@B_M_Finnigan wow the national sample in PA was biden 45, trump 44 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The ABC post poll is good and I don't think there's anything wrong with Monmouth's methodology. I'm just saying that I don't think you can draw inferences about the lean of their national poll based on their state polls and vice versa https://t.co/eeYao72n83 — PolitiTweet.org