Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One fascinating thing is that most people look at these maps and think there are too many people in the cities. In both states, the raw sample is slightly too rural (and weighted appropriately) https://t.co/aprzWbCw7i — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@realTooPrime nope base R — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@KelleyNorth @BruneElections @SeanTrende @kkondik the overall result of the survey would be essentially unchanged, 46-45 biden, if the poll included no new voters. but if you're comparing two small subgroups--2016 voters--to another 2020 voters--you don't have an apples-to-apples comparison — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BruneElections @SeanTrende @kkondik to that point, here's the 2020 result among the 2016 voters (excluding whatever noisy effects of LV/new voters might exist). Now 1 is biden; 2 Trump https://t.co/49FvANgbvX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @HenryJGomez: NEW: It’s not just Iowa and Ohio. Trump also has scaled back TV ads significantly in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota —… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BruneElections @SeanTrende @kkondik 1 is trump, 2 is clinton. self-reported voters only https://t.co/MFd18AzL5D — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@KelleyNorth @SeanTrende @kkondik lol wut — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @kkondik 11 respondents, Biden ahead 46-41 as weighted lol — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The PA/OH contiguous map is pretty nice too https://t.co/taqMZHBxcJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kkondik @SeanTrende they're not defined by county, so it's a little messy. but https://t.co/bmJ6SzHh3r — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@hthorpe31 there are 8 wood county respondents. 4 biden, 3 trump, 1 jorg. but as weighted, they're trump 46, biden 43. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kkondik @SeanTrende — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ohio is very friendly to the dot map https://t.co/LiiWLHIG4J — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @guycecil: I rarely engage in polling twitter, but will chime in here to simply say we are not up 11 in Florida and 13 in Pennsylvania.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict beto supporters were seen tearing down a cracker barrel not far from here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Sometimes it's easy to tell. Other times, I have no idea. This is one of them https://t.co/yt0hx16dbY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @steveschale: Biden isn’t up 11 in Florida. Move along https://t.co/xSCzHZ4gpd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Quinnipiac shows Biden with double-digit leads in Pennsylvania and Florida, up 5 in Iowa. Not terribly surprising, given Qs persistent Biden House effect this cycle. But you could chop 7 pts off these numbers and they'd still be fine for Biden https://t.co/O4V4BBTxki — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are many ways our polls could be wrong, I'm sure. Not having enough rural folks is not one of them. https://t.co/LIqzgQsnQh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @PollsterPatrick @doug_rivers NBC is RBS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @PollsterPatrick @doug_rivers Yes, but you'd still expect a more Biden-y set of reg. Dems to yield a more Dem set of reg Dems by party ID, and so on., so you'd expect to see a PID shift as well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PollsterPatrick: @gelliottmorris @Nate_Cohn @doug_rivers 1. To Nate's Q: topline PID was Even/R+4 in the 2 LV models 2. To Elliott's Q… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A lot of you seem upset that I called these polls relatively good for Trump. But look, we're at a possible inflection point in this race. There are polls raising the possibility of a true landslide unseen in decades. It's quite important if/when good polls don't show that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

FWIW, I don't see much evidence of nonresponse bias in our polling, or, frankly, even in the polls that do show Biden doing super well. That Biden+12 in PA was D+1 among RVs, after all, and maybe even R+1 among LVs, like our PA poll, @PollsterPatrick ? https://t.co/v6F76RSgP2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, I think these are two pretty good pollsters. But we're at the point where the 'good' news for the president is basically the old average, and that's generally a sign things have shifted. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Over all, I do think the NYT/Siena results in OH/NV and the Marquette Law results for WI are *relatively* good for the president. They're more like the polls we saw before the debate than the Biden>10 type numbers we've seen a lot of lately — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, one thing I'll note about our own surveys is that they do name the minor party candidates. Over the longer run, those polls have tended to be better for the president. It also means there are fewer undecided voters in our polls than you think — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Probably Trump's best result of the week. Higher minor party vote here is interesting https://t.co/zcNb0F0RmL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MULawPoll: Among WI likely voters, 46% say they will vote for Joe Biden, 41% say they will vote for Donald Trump, 4% for Libertarian Jo… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Alright, it's a big polling hour. Biden up in OH/NV in NYT/Siena. Next is Marquette Law in Wisconsin. At 2, we'll get PA/FL/IA from Quinnipiac https://t.co/GO9rpTNG0r — PolitiTweet.org