Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: Biden's favorable/unfavorable ratings in NYT polls... Michigan: 54/42... Wisconsin: 55/42.... This isn't a lesser of t… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If we suppose that there's real, underlying GOP shift in the upper Midwest, but Trump has just totally repelled independent voters, then maybe it's not hard to see James running ahead. OTOH, we may just have a relatively GOP sample here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another factor worth considering: this MI poll shows the GOP with a party ID advantage. We've seen this GOP party ID shift across all of our polling, but MI is a state where the Democratic party ID advantage has usually been particularly wide, including in our own prior polling — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I actually do think this is a pretty highly relevant factor here, given the undecided voters. I almost wonder whether it's worth adding a question about it https://t.co/FSGuBPZeUd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Trump campaign can at least hope that this week's events will be somewhat better, as a plurality of voters in MI/WI support the Barrett nomination *and* thought the Senate should act on her nomination before the election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The polls offered little reason to think that the last week's events had worked in the president's favor, at a time when every week counts. Voters overwhelmingly thought he should have participated in the virtual debate, and thought Harris won the VP debate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On top of that, Biden also wins minor party voters by a significant margin, taking his 3 point lead to a 5 point lead. Then, a slightly more favorable turnout brings his lead from 5 to 6 points. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Alone, voters flipping from Trump-->Biden v. Clinton-->Trump turn the president's 3 point lead among 2016 voters into a 3 point deficit, giving Biden a comfortable lead in the region without any change in turnout or gains among minor party voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Joe Biden leads in Times/Siena polls of the northern battlegrounds by 6 points this fall, even though our respondents said they voted for Trump by 3 points four years ago. How? The president faces modest but significant defections . https://t.co/olAsCQgqYp https://t.co/9Tv7Z56Mzo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Perhaps the most interesting result: Gary Peters (D) holds just a 1 point lead over John James (R), 43-42, in the race for US Senate in Michigan, down from a 10 point lead in June — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Joe Biden leads in Wisconsin and Michigan by a significant margin, according to new Times/Siena polls. Biden leads Trump by 10 in Wisconsin, 51 to 41 percent. Biden leads by 8 in Michigan, 48 to 40 https://t.co/olAsCQgqYp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbpoersch from my point of view, if we're not going to write an article about it or support a major article, not really sure it's worth a question. and with the house seen as out of play, probably not getting an article — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nickgourevitch do you think they should be doing anything to 'handle' that? i doubt any will — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: This is good. https://t.co/Y5QiHyy0A8 https://t.co/VB0HUhRAhd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden's up 10.6 and sitting at 52.3% in the RealClearPolitics average. I believe that's the highest vote share that a candidate has ever held in the RCP average in the year of an election https://t.co/NvMmhsdpFA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

a related, key question: does this poll count 3x as much toward our rating bc there are three federal races? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

not done https://t.co/yHS5q3ACZX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

amazing question. @NateSilver538 trying to blowup our A+ rating by getting AK in right at the deadline https://t.co/kHRmebjYFA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Tomorrow at 1PM: NYT/Siena in Wisconsin and Michigan, and what else we have coming this week... https://t.co/v6cOzDIw3O — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict fwiw i think pop decline is a big factor — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @BoKnowsNews: New @CBSNews poll of likely voters in... Michigan: Biden 52 / Trump 46 Nevada: Biden 52 / Trump 46 Iowa: Biden 49 / Trump… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris does abc/post count as party weighted? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: Even at the height of Clinton's lead after Access Hollywood, she was up just 6.9% at @FiveThirtyEight: 45.8% to 38.9%. That… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The USC 7-day tracker has some serious periodicity biases, so it's often hard to clearly interpret the trendline. But this one can't be mistaken: Biden up by his widest margin yet, and up 4 pts over 14 days ago (probably the most comparable sample) https://t.co/XBPcqNqgCT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, there had been some hints that *maybe* the president had rebounded a bit after being released from the hospital? This is a strike against that possibility. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden leads by 12 in the ABC/Post survey, 54-42 It's no outlier. That's basically the average national survey result since the president's COVID diagnosis https://t.co/9khete83F6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden+12 in ABC/Post, 54-42 It's not outlier: that's basically the post-Trump COVID diagnosis average of national surveys at this points. https://t.co/9khete83F6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict let’s see the final registration and early vote by party numbers before we make many assumptions about the best a candidate can hope for in an extremely high turnout election in one of the fastest growing counties in the country — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @pettigrew_stats: Holy crap, I'm floored by how bad this article is. These political scientists should probably have talked to their pol… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict i'd want to know the party reg of the 75k early/mail voters and the final reg figures in the county, but if that's the only information I have I'd certainly agree that it's a terrible result for the president — PolitiTweet.org