Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @b_schaffner @hezaproject @MasabuAida I think it's like 8% for us all-time? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @realDonaldTrump: Kayleigh McEnany presenting Lesley Stahl (@60Minutes) with some of the many things we’ve done for Healthcare. Lesley h… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We thought about it. Live tracking PA/WI/FL/AZ only for the final month had an interesting case https://t.co/BWkjQzyt2q — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're in the field in one state through the debate, and it's not Montana or Kansas https://t.co/5F4dlH04pe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And again, I really don't think it's worth sluthing through crosstabs to see if something's off, because it's usually just noise that cancels out. But if you're off in the same way every time, it's not noise--and that means it might not cancel out. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In classic Quinnipiac-polls-the-south form, they get their tie in Texas with Biden at an extremely high 28% of whites without a degree, but canceled out by Biden only up 8 among Hispanic voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Quinnipiac poll: Texas tied, 47 to 47 percent. Cornyn+6. Biden +8 in Pennsylvania, 51 to 43. https://t.co/47zbRCaNa7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yes, everything from here--including the polls earlier this week--are our last measurements of a race. Wish it didn't have to be that way, but the last debate is very close to the election this year https://t.co/ow5eHl5tJN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not much, since most of the undecided voters do not have an opinion of these candidates. By Trump approval, everyone who doesn't support a major party candidate is... Trump approval -1, about the same as the state. https://t.co/9L3DukDNqZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It was tough to decide what states to do now v. after the final debate, and while I wouldn't say I *regret* putting Iowa here, I definitely would say that I wish we got to comeback again, given that the electorate seems a little bit conflicted between partisanship v. candidates — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A couple of notes on the Senate races, though. --There are a lot of dissenting votes here. 4 for minor party candidates; another 2 who won't vote or said someone else. --Ernst favs are bad, at 46-47 with Greenfield at 51/38. Tough to reconcile with topline. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Senate result is a bit surprising! It's Ernst's first lead in a nonpartisan poll in six weeks, and I'd note that the Monmouth poll today was tied among RVs, as well. So maybe this race hasn't slipped out of the GOP's hands quite yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The poll is R+6 by party identification and Trump+10 by recalled vote. But Trump only has an 86-9 lead among his 2016 voters, which I think is the worst of any poll we've done so far? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One note, given the Monmouth poll today: there is no LV/RV gap in the survey, perhaps in part because we do not give any bonus to having 'already voted' compared to saying you're 'almost certain to vote,' to avoid biasing the survey toward early voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbreezy1512 One note, given the Monmouth poll today: there is no LV/RV gap in the survey, perhaps in part because we do not give any bonus to having 'already voted' compared to saying you're 'almost certain to vote,' to avoid biasing the survey toward early voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Iowa, 46 to 43 percent, according to a new Times/Siena poll. Joni Ernst leads Theresa Greenfield by 1 in the race for U.S. Senate, 45 to 44 percent. Trump approval at 46/50 https://t.co/Eb3mtqDSyu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maureendowd: I’ve seen the Giuliani moment in Borat 2. It’s even wilder than it sounds. Beyond cringe. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Cause isn't poll-related (or Monmouth poll related). They're both done and final, but wires got crossed and I'm pretty sure we wound up with two folks working on Iowa poll stories and zero for Kansas. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NYT/Siena schedule update: it'll be Iowa this afternoon, at TBD time; Kansas tomorrow. Sorry to disappoint the Kansans and non-Kansasans! https://t.co/30fCHPRJSk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PatrickSvitek: Biden endorsement in a Texas CD that Trump won by 14 points in 2016 > https://t.co/JQx1QyyCD2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, Quinnipiac's decision not to conduct a national poll post-debate probably cost us like a Biden+20 national result or something https://t.co/qqA1qv8MEY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, it'll be interesting. https://t.co/UF0GjPhAp4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

No trend toward Greenfield among RVs/high turnout LV is interesting, especially in light of the much bigger shift to Biden. Crystal Ball even moved it to lean Dem over this period. https://t.co/8vWBlAwEAW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JonesChrisA: This is a subtle, but an amazing detail. Probably not unintentional but hardly anyone will notice. @MonmouthPoll is based… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You'll get another reading on both races from a Times/Siena poll tomorrow afternoon — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Interesting, the Dems enjoy the edge among LVs, with GOP faring best in the high turnout LV scenario or even better still among all RVs: Trump+1 and Senate tied. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Monmouth finds Biden+5 or +3 among LVs in Iowa; Greenfield up +6 or +2 in the Senate race. That's Biden's best Iowa result that I can recall. https://t.co/h3IcdVqI1B — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Maybe a coincidence? But both our AK and KS polls were preceded by partisan polls firms showing some friendly results https://t.co/IfQvVkZ7qV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite @szorowitz Or alternately, that the longstanding winners bias in recalled vote is still true, and these polls all ought to show an even larger Trump lead in recalled vote than the results / our polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm very interested to see Monmouth in Iowa at 11AM today, and not just because we also just wrapped up there, setting up a fun comparison. Iowa is the rare Upper Midwestern battleground with party registration, so it ought to be the easiest to poll. Should tell us about WI/MN. — PolitiTweet.org