Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NilesGApol nope — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ok one final thing: note that there aren't as many undecided voters here. We didn't push our leaners any harder. But... --there aren't minor party candidates in some of these races --due to same day registration, there are fewer low turnout voters on the voter file — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing I meant to add on this point: usually we would not have enough independents if we didn't have this data, as engaged partisan voters are likeliest to respond to surveys. https://t.co/Ppkqoetkux — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing that's pretty clear from the week's polling, IMO: Trump is faring very poorly in a broadly defined northwestern quadrant (AK, KS, MT, IA) of the US, a region that's white, often hostile to incumbents, and favorable to third party candidates and outsiders in primaries. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2) Same day registration. I don't know whether that will help Democrats or Republicans this year, especially since GOP has gained in late reg. in other states. But I do know that there's nothing we're doing about it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Montana is a tricky state to poll! It may well work out in the end, but there are two unique challenges here: 1) No party registration or partisan vote history. For all I know, maybe we dno't have enough independents, and thus not enough ticket splitting. Usually, we know! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Right or wrong, our polls show a smaller split on the presidential race and the Senate (for what it's worth, our presidential number is 7 unrounded). Bullock's favs are a net-20 pts better than Biden, but he's only running 3 pts ahead of Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Republicans hold a narrow lead up and down the ticket in Montana, per new NYT/Siena poll Trump 49, Biden 43 Daines 49, Bullock 46 Rosendale 50, Williams 46 Gianforte 48, Cooney 44 https://t.co/AK4K55c5jp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Republicans hold a narrow lead up and down the ticket in Montana, according to a new Times/Siena poll Trump 46, Biden 43 Daines 49, Bullock 45 Rosendale 50, Williams 46 Gianforte 48, Cooney 44 https://t.co/AK4K55c5jp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One of these polls was just a few weeks ago, while another was a full year ago. So it's not a great way to look at this question. But we even with 1/3 of this being recent, and with old sample including no new reg voters, the Dem party reg. advantage of our sample declined by .5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One interesting thing here is that we can see some of the party registration flipping by looking at older polls. The folks that are currently registered Republicans, but who weren't at the time we polled there are Trump 87, Biden 6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For context: the three polls, together, were Biden+5 among RVs, 46-41. Weights are same as original. Here's their vote and party reg: Returned mail: Biden 60, Trump 32 (D49, R30) In-person early: Trump 46, Biden 41 (D36, R43) Not yet voting: Trump 43, Biden 42 (D31, R38) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A quick bit of fun Florida. I happened to have pulled up all of our polls of Florida, dating all the way back to last October--if you can even remember that now--and joined up the absentee/early voting data. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's how I'm scoring it: Missed short-range game winners: Trump. Missed long-range game winners: PA chaos Made game winners of any range: Biden No game winning field goal attempt: without a clear signal, we must assume it's an EC tie goes to the House lol — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RossRichendrfer tbh it's probably like one of my last 10 IRL human encounters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RossRichendrfer lol of course — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And even better, it was also Sunday Night Football! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On this very date four years ago, SEA v. AZ ended in a 6-6 tie, with *two* missed game winning field goals of 24 and 28 yards! As you may recall, a missed field goal attempt was the analogy the Upshot model used to describe the probability of an upset https://t.co/xIKBY5oNEw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's a very important game on Sunday Night Football this week: SEA v. AZ. I will be watching this game very carefully for any missed field goal attempts — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

TLDR: This didn't have to be this bad, even if they were stuck opening ballots on Election Day — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As far as I know, Pennsylvania hasn't adopted any practices to disaggregate their results by vote method (like FL/NC/GA), either, which would be extremely useful even if they did decide to proceed with a count that was biased by vote method — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are some complications here, like if you have Election Day mail dropboxes, your early eleciton night sample would need to be updated once you got that, etc. But again, surmountable issue — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You could also do both: make sure to organize a random sample of completed precincts statewide, and release those results quickly. Then proceed with counting ballots as fast as you can. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't know how quickly you can organize mail ballots by precinct, but I suspect it would be doable if you had made a plan for it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You know, you don't have to count votes by method! For instance, you could count votes of all methods, precinct by precinct, which would yield a pretty representative sample pretty quickly. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's obviously a big pain that states like Pennsylvania won't open their mail ballots until Election Day What's also a pain is that they haven't restructured the count to reflect that fact, and ensure a representative count on Election Night https://t.co/gIN5lJ2bNj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And we've already made strong decent progress https://t.co/zJBK5FaQMr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And the final 2016 poll was 48% with college graduates. This one is 38%. Doesn't solve everything, but it does help https://t.co/rA3NJKKsXE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Texas will be our last (partly) pre-final debate survey as we head into the last stretch — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Today at 1PM: NYT/Siena in Montana Next up, Texas https://t.co/EWzv48tO2c https://t.co/rvZ2vG1XYY — PolitiTweet.org