Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You've got to really think there's a lot of slack--and upside--along the Rio Grande to send your VP candidate to one of the smaller media markets of your 400th electoral vote just days before the election https://t.co/1IQ4OjHGUw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

McAllen the give away here https://t.co/akYA6s7rsF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is a big part of why I don't care about the early vote. There are exceptions, like TX--where a state goes from noncompetitive to competitive. But in most states, you just can't convince me that the electorate will be vastly different than our priors by party registration — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's the secret about presidential electorates: they're pretty stable! You don't see huge swings in the composition of the electorate by party registration, with few exceptions. Most swing result from change in preferences, not relative turnout rate https://t.co/95v3gotZ2d — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In our final Times/Siena survey of Nevada, voters who weren't registered as either D/R reported backing Biden by 7 points, 46-39. They said they voted for Trump over Clinton 42-35. https://t.co/w72lDAFBlu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mmurraypolitics: More evidence the 2020 presidential race hasn't really changed after the last debate. Our NBC/WSJ pollsters re-contac… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MonmouthPoll: COMING LATER TODAY: GEORGIA. @realDonaldTrump & @JoeBiden were neck and neck in our Sept. poll. @SenDavidPerdue led Jon @… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It says something about my feed that this is basically all that's discussed about this poll from my point of view https://t.co/jLZlhW2aPO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Something to keep in mind in digesting the Wisconsin data https://t.co/Eh9SlsDGnI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @stella2020woof: President (Maine 2) Biden (D) 46% Trump (R) 42% 10/21-10/25 by Colby College 879 LV Woof! Did I do a good job? Poll… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Hispanic defections stand out as a cause of the Biden slip in NYT/Siena polling. Biden's support among Clinton voters: Whites 94-3 Blacks 93-2 Hispanics 84-7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At the same time, Biden's running behind Clinton among nonwhite voters by almost the exact same amount as white voters. He's up just 42 points, down from Clinton's 51 point lead in 2016. Notably, it's Trump picking up support--not just undecideds or something — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

.@Redistrict often talks about how the district polling is so different. This data is my equivalent. I tracked this all cycle in '16, and it sure seemed to hint at a path victory... that just never showed up in the state polling https://t.co/vPQ1DTmTKe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In Times/Siena, Trump's losses among white voters without a degree have a clear regional bent. He holds his support in the Deep South (and Nevada). He's not even retaining 90% of his support in the North https://t.co/DPE4SYzjyj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This has shifted throughout the cycle. Back in the spring, Trump was matching his '16 showing among white working class voters. Since then, white voters have moved decisively toward Biden https://t.co/dgt1HvJ2du — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Four years ago, national polls plainly showed the Trump surge among white voters without a degree--clearly signaling Trump's path to victory. No sign of it today: Trump leads 58-37 among white no college voters, down from 59-30 in the final '16 polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The racial gap in American electoral politics is shrinking, according to pre-election polls. The gap between white and nonwhite voters has dropped by 17 points, as Biden and Trump make equal and oppose gains among white and nonwhite voters https://t.co/luKnfxZtUB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We'll get another reading in both states today, with NYT/Siena in Michigan and Marquette Law School in Wisconsin — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Whatever you make of it, it’s not tightening — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'll be controversial--and emphasizing that this is a ranking of likeliest to flip, *not* expected margin of victory: NE02; MI; AZ; WI; PA; FL; NC; GA; IA; ME02, TX; OH https://t.co/rjsl3F8feD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PollsAndVotes: Shout out and thank you! to the 10,643 resondents to the @MULawPoll in the "long 2020" since we started asking about the… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And again, that's not to say it can't happen. But personally, I think it'd be very hard to explain in a way that Trump's 16 victory really wasn't--or any number of other Trump '20 wins wouldn't be — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anything can happen, I suppose. But like if you had to pre-write the Trump wins Arizona article tonight, what would it even say? And as someone who, if I may say so myself, prewrote a very solid Trump wins article in '16, I can't come up with much better than 'anything happened' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is not a state with a history of being biased toward Dems in the polls. It has far fewer Election Day voters than the Midwest. There's no pool of potentially cross pressured, traditional Dem voters. There's barely a rural vote at all, tbh. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let me pose a question: if we stipulate for a second that Trump's trailing in Arizona now, what exactly is the story for how and why he mounts a comeback? https://t.co/e1YU7iY9cy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If that's right, then Trump is in a really tough spot. He's basically out of time. I won't rule out that the polls could tighten naturally a bit before the election, but I'd be surprised by big movement. And if not, then he'll need a much larger polling error than '16 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We haven't had a ton of post-debate polling, but I think we've seen enough to say that the debate didn't really change anything. We'd see signs of it by now if it did, and there's nothing really — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As it was in '18 https://t.co/YbMz4Gqdtk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We'll revisit this before the election. But it's a big file and I'm not going to do it every day! https://t.co/VBWdOrIDUr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The people who haven't voted yet who we're quite sure will vote (say, prior primary voters) are even more GOP: Trump 60, Biden 25. (though our samples are pretty small for each of these groups) — PolitiTweet.org