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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's the secret about presidential electorates: they're pretty stable! You don't see huge swings in the composition of the electorate by party registration, with few exceptions. Most swing result from change in preferences, not relative turnout rate https://t.co/95v3gotZ2d — PolitiTweet.org

In our final Times/Siena survey of Nevada, voters who weren't registered as either D/R reported backing Biden by 7… https://t.co/OXlgGpRbZT

Posted Oct. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In our final Times/Siena survey of Nevada, voters who weren't registered as either D/R reported backing Biden by 7 points, 46-39. They said they voted for Trump over Clinton 42-35. https://t.co/w72lDAFBlu — PolitiTweet.org

For example, Biden lost independents by 13 points in Nevada in 2016, per the exit poll there. This year, he leads t… https://t.co/lEl91Zy7IM

Posted Oct. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is a big part of why I don't care about the early vote. There are exceptions, like TX--where a state goes from noncompetitive to competitive. But in most states, you just can't convince me that the electorate will be vastly different than our priors by party registration — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2020 Hibernated