Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ZekeJMiller: Responding to "Fire Fauci" chant from audience in Florida, Trump tells supporters, “Don’t tell anybody, but let me wait un… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PollsterPatrick: Early night for me. If you’re up at dawn, I’ll be on Morning Joe at 6:00 with our final Pennsylvania numbers. @Monmout… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @b_schaffner: CES likely voter estimates for 5 key swing states: FL (N=3,755): Biden 49 - Trump 47 GA (N=1,456): Biden 48 - Trump 47 N… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Politics_Polls: WISCONSIN Biden 53% (+10) Trump 43% Jorgensen 2% Hawkins 0% West 0% . Head-2-Head: Biden 53% (+8) Trump 45% @Reuters/@… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: It doesn't deserve comment. https://t.co/KWCR3k8pBH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ohio is also a state where we have good reason to expect a call on Election Night, which gives it an extra bit of value this year — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Like the Iowa stop on Friday, this tells you everything you need to know about where the Biden team sees the race right now https://t.co/MSOQZAdN3Y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JakeSherman: New stop alert … On Monday, November 2, Joe Biden will travel to Cleveland, Ohio to discuss bringing Americans together to… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Just based on the results of our polls by '16 vote, I'd guess nonexistent--or even helping Biden a bit. But my worry is that it matters a lot for a lot of the pollsters who use it as a crutch for meh data https://t.co/SFLmNOn0gr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

An AM polling diary update: the final polls show Biden well ahead. https://t.co/0iKAVliqtd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing I wish we knew: what polls weighting on 2016 recall vote (how voters say they voted in'16) would show if they didn't do so. There are a lot of reasons I'm curious about that, but there's another reason one going forward: IDK if polls will have this crutch in '22/24 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @b_schaffner: we’ve been giving 2020 a hard time, but let’s just take a moment to appreciate the fact that the calendar is bringing Elec… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Amazon MTurk share of Emerson poll respondents has declined in these final polls. Now they're using a lot of text-to-web SMS (it's possible this change has been true for a while, and I just missed it) https://t.co/xvkvRSQEBr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The president's out of time. He'll need a far larger polling error than four years ago. https://t.co/Hxf7du7WBm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mmurraypolitics: Final pre-election national NBC/WSJ poll among registered voters: Biden 52% Trump 42% Oct 29-31, +/- 3.1% Was Biden… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mmurraypolitics: Our final pre-election national NBC/WSJ poll comes out at 9:00 am ET @MeetThePress @NBCNews @MSNBC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In person early voting https://t.co/H3weiYoMkn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Florida is a bit different. Biden is losing a critical sliver of Clinton vote, as well, and Trump still wins in 2016 voters--something I don't really recall in prior surveys. Instead, Biden wins with new voters. Right or wrong, it's a more uncertain basis for a lead IMO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The story in AZ/FL/PA is basically the same one we've had all campaign: Biden winning the 2016 electorate, as he wins a critical sliver of Trump supporters, loses very little Clinton vote, and wins big among minor party vote--with new voters padding the edge. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in the four states likeliest to decide the presidency, according to the final Times/Siena surveys of the campaign Ariz.: Biden 49, Trump 43 Florida: Biden 47, Trump 44 Penn.: Biden 49, Trump 43 Wisc: Biden 52, Trump 42 https://t.co/R8elDQwSPU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My thoughts on today's polls, but mainly just the Selzer poll https://t.co/6tJDH2949W — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And this Selzer Iowa poll is off on its own, not just in Iowa but in terms of the overall story. Every national poll has shown doing Biden way ahead of Clinton among white voters / white working class voters. He's excelled across the white, northern tier. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is also worth noting, though, that Selzer can be wrong, and has been before. No pollster has been put on a higher pedestal, but in the end everyone in this business is subject to sampling error and so on. If you expect perfection out of N=800 polls, you won't get it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is most certainly the president's best poll result in a very long time--perhaps of the whole cycle. Biden campaigned there yesterday, so it's quite obvious that this isn't how they see the race here. But campaigns have been wrong before — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trump leads the final Selzer poll of Iowa by 7 points, 48 to 41. That's the same margin as their final poll four years ago, which wound up foreshadowing Trump's Midwestern sweep https://t.co/bIOVhFRaQh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I know many people on this website seem to think some version of this.. but it's just not true https://t.co/kwIPqNmjAE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The link now works: it's Ernst by 4, 46-42 That's a notable flip from their last poll, which had Greenfield ahead. Our last Iowa poll, about two weeks ago, also showed Ernst pulling into the lead after Greenfield led in September — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The link now works: it's Ernst by 4, 46-42 That's a notable flip from their last poll, which hand Greenfield by 2 points. Our last Iowa poll, about two weeks ago, also showed Ernst pulling into the lead after Greenfield led in September — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It appears Ernst leads the final Selzer poll, though the link doesn't work for me https://t.co/3e2wenXsh7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, I'd sure think the implication is that we'll get final CNN/SSRS polls in FL/PA tomorrow or Monday. Hard to think they'd leave those states out all together at the end — PolitiTweet.org