Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Some early theories on went went wrong with the pre-election polling this year https://t.co/2Byh7efsXc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's enough uncertainty about the number of provisionals and so on that I'm not going to say where *exactly* I think we'll land. But we're not heading to a particularly close race here. That's been clear since Election Night — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's another trove of vote for Biden: the segregated, late arriving mail ballots. These aren't in the count or the ballots remaining tally, AFIAK. They're subject to some legal dispute still, but if they count they break to Biden — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Earlier, there was ambiguity about just how Biden would fare in provisionals--based on data from overwhelmingly GOP counties. That ambiguity is gone. Lancaster and Beaver county data shows Biden doing far better among provisionals. Allegheny County reported provs breaking 75-25 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden's lead will be padded by two main factors: --there are still another 50k absentee ballots, predominantly in Philly and Pittsburgh, which will break overwhelmingly to Biden --there are a large number provisional ballots, which will also break big for Biden — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is up to .7 points--or about 45,000 votes. Biden could still be on track to approach a lead of about 100,000 votes when all of the votes are tallied up https://t.co/TNLEUnbeNK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mcimaps: I have barely scratched the surface on Miami-Dade, and await the final turnout list to do more analysis, but the collapse for… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The needle did account for provisionals in all three states https://t.co/uKi6OLd3Gp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Arizona ballots today: Trump+9. He entered the day needing about an 18-point edge to overtake Biden. Now it's 22 points, and that supposes that every outstanding ballot is valid and counted. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

GA is over, barring irregularities in recanvassing or recount https://t.co/o2q98CMcdt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is also a case where data quality is a factor. About half of the votes are provisionals; half late mail. If the state released results by type (like GA), we could have a clear picture of where we're headed. As it is, the desks don't know for sure — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the remaining votes are like tonight's votes, then this isn't GA. Not sure whether the decision desks will see it that way or not. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now Trump needs a 22 pt. lead among the remaining ~90k ballots, and some won't ultimately be valid. At this point, there's no reason to expect that kind of advantage. The only real question is whether we end up in a GA-like situation, where there's an obvious winner but no call — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Given their typical sequence, this ought to be the last of the election day dropoff. If so, that's a very bad sign for Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As always, the key is what kind of ballots we're looking at: late mail, election day drop off, provisional, or cured ballots. I haven't seen any clear indication of what this is, and absent that it's hard to be too sure of what to make of it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Maricopa only adds about 7k ballots tonight, but they're Biden+11--assuming I did this right. Obviously that's the wrong direction for the president, though many ballots still remain. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yeah. In the precinct data I've seen, it looks like it'll be concentrated in nonwhite, especially Hispanic areas yet again--though I'm pausing on this until we see the provisionals/absentees there https://t.co/VWdiNfgnF5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Preliminary shift from 2016 to 2020 by county, so far. Will change, of course, but a few things stand out: --NY (absentees still uncounted) --AR (Clinton had some residual appeal!) --Hispanic areas (Rio Grande, Dade, Osceola, Yuma, Imperial, LA, etc.) --Utah (Mormons shift back) https://t.co/4guM32Cfjy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One factor padding Biden's lead in Georgia: provisionals. He's up 61-37 among those counted so far, adding about 1800 votes to his statewide lead to this point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden has improved over Clinton by 3 points in counties where the vote count looks about done to me. That would put him on track for a 5 point win in the national popular vote, providing the completed areas are sufficiently representative — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, the ... early returns... so far indicate that this may have been for my own good. Hopefully this is a Miami-Dade county situation — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This has been a tough week, and not getting SEA-BUF televised here in NYC is just completely unfair to me and @ForecasterEnten — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten wasn't it CO twice in both 08/12? or is my memory wrong on this one — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is up to .61%, putting it on the cusp of overtaking Wisconsin, where Biden's up by .62 https://t.co/DvcM5gnk7b — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Still a lot of vote left to count in Fairfax, and I'd think it takes Biden over 70 in the end https://t.co/Cf5FBuADgA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think Wisconsin keeps the prize again this cycle, though GA/AZ will be close https://t.co/HFHA2j07MO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden's lead in Georgia continues to tick up as various extraneous votes get counted. I don't know what's left, but I increasingly wonder whether this may ultimately be clear enough for the 'apparent winner' designation, pre-recount but post full-count https://t.co/VjF4LH80BF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ColleenWolfe: An Eagles fan will soon have the nuclear codes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Garrett_Archer: Pinal county has posted 7,087 ballots to the state. Breakdown: Biden: 2,225 (31%) Trump: 4,700 (66%) Biden now leads T… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: More convinced than ever that older Black Democratic primary voters in South Carolina won this presidential race for t… — PolitiTweet.org