Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Today, runoff early voting will approach 80% of the general, though there were fewer opportunities to apply for a ballot and fewer days of early voting. We're at 94% of 2020 turnout if you adjust for days lost--though otoh folks could choose to vote on a similar day — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In 2017, GA-06 had a high-profile special runoff that attracted 260k votes--81% of 2018 midterm turnout despite lower stakes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In 2018, the gubernatorial race attracted 4 million votes and voter registration's up 14%. Leaving aside the very important distinction that this is a runoff election, we would expect well over 4 million votes for a race like this — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One obvious thing: there's no good empirical basis for modeling the turnout in this election. But I do think that the level of spending, the stakes, and the type of contest (Senate) are above even the very highest-profile midterm contests — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

How big is the turnout going to be in Georgia? I have no idea, but here are a few things that loom in my thinking — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@lxeagle17 sure — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@lxeagle17 i don't have an estimate; i don't think there's a strong empirical basis for thinking about turnout in this election. but the early vote looks like the early vote for a general election, and I have far fewer substantive objections to a guesstimate of 30% than 20% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ReubenR80027912 our estimate is that biden won 57% of young voters, with the support of 34% of young whites and 91% of young black voters (who were 29% of the 18-29 vote). the exits and votecast survey find the same basic thing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, and you should expect it unless you think the Dems are going to just run away with the race (which I suppose they could but I don't see how that's likely) https://t.co/UTyioUYqFA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I expect a larger election day vote than most of the tweets I see on this website. The GOP will win it big. And we'll have to wait and see https://t.co/EIg6Ens3Kt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@lfarrellpointer @ElectProject you probably would have voted in a dem presidential primary though, and we'd prioritize that if you voted in both — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject TBH primary vote history > party registration on accuracy, just has worse coverage — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject NYT/Siena in GA: Dem primary: Biden 86, Trump 5 Rep primary: Trump 86, Biden 6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject sorry, but it is. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Folks Biden didn't even receive 60% of the 18 to 29 year old vote in Georgia, in all likelihood And yes, Georgia does have partisanship data: primary vote history. 73% of early voters have it. There's no ambiguity here. https://t.co/WrcWKCtGTM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And here's the same table but for all advance votes, including mail absentee https://t.co/lkUTeeQiNA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, a huge proportion of my replies in recent days are about age, and I just have to insist that it shouldn't weigh much on your thinking. Age doesn't matter a *ton* in general and certainly not in comparison to, or after controlling for, party and race — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, the Dems needed and expected to do better in the early vote, given holidays and fewer mail absentees. And anything can happen on Election Day. But still, this was a prerequisite to a stronger Democratic turnout and that's probably prerequisite to a Dem win — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In-person early voting wrapped up in Georgia yesterday, and over all the Democrats enjoyed a more favorable turnout than they did in the general. https://t.co/vsaf2zEg5m — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Bad news everyone: it's still the 2020 election cycle — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Oo an important twist: while WI is Trump-->Trump with all of the UP, WI very narrowly votes for Biden if MI retains its initial pre-Toledo war holding on the UP. https://t.co/cckQ4PB8oU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

well she loses Virginia here, which costs her the election. she does win with the 'correct' MI/WI/FL if you keep the current VA/WV https://t.co/C2ieP54LIs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

FL without the Panhandle (aka the FL that should probably exist) would have been a Clinton --> Trump state. The original VA (VA+WV) would have been a Trump--> Clinton state WI + Michigan's UP (aka what should exist) would be a Trump-->Trump state (MI would be Clinton-->Biden) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jadler1969: Having dealt with Ohio 2004 election truthers for many years, I find the revisionism about Sen. Boxer and the 31 House memb… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonathanchait i'm glad you didn't highlight the mcclellan line. that level of originality is most certainly not tiresome — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You can see that playing out in Fulton County, the state's largest, which had its final day yesterday and undoubtedly contributed to Dem. strength https://t.co/KWkQ2envpL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With that in mind, there's not much surprise that Dems did a tad better today than the equiv. day from the general, as they were padded by last-day voting in some places. And conversely, today may not be quite as Dem as the last day of the general, without those same counties — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, the daily comparison at this point is not as clear as it once was. As you can see on the chart, the last day of early voting is a pretty good one for Democrats. A few counties, including Fulton, did that yesterday. And today will be the last in the rest of the state. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is typically a strong period for GOP voting and so it was yesterday as well. But as we've seen throughout early voting, Democrats outpaced their standing at a similar point ahead of the general election thanks to strong Black turnout https://t.co/F9V2ZATaMK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Today's the last day of in-person early voting in most of Georgia (several counties wrapped up yesterday). Yesterday saw the highest turnout so far, with few changes in the turnout patterns that we've seen throughout early voting https://t.co/7D2PI8J3dW — PolitiTweet.org