Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And it was also reinforced by the contrast of in Democratic midterm losses in 10/14, which were certainly exacerbated by a less favorable turnout. Democrats lost the plot when they tried to explain 2016 (and now 2020) in the same way https://t.co/V9ljAFYWpB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tmillsNC (also if they're not voting in a battleground state in the highest turnout presidential election in a long time, they're not your base) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tmillsNC Iowa 2012: Obama+6; 77% Dem turnout, 81% GOP turnout Iowa 2020: Trump+8; 81% Dem turnout, 85% GOP turnout — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's a romantic view, since there's no secret of the progressive love of organizing. It's also a convenient view, since it shields activists from questioning their views or whether they represent who they say they do. It's also self-justifying: the solution is more campaign staff — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is only one obvious example of a broader tendency in Dem/progressive electoral thinking in recent years, which really wants to reduce elections to be turnout and electoral strategy to grassroots organization https://t.co/fW57Mqf6Eo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: NEW: There may not be a Supreme Court vacancy yet, but a handful of Democrats have been maneuvering behind the scenes since l… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @KevinQ: Map update! Yesterday the precinct folks added most of Pennsylvania and patched up some small holes elsewhere across the countr… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris i interpreted your comment to be about the WI polls, since you quoted a tweet about them, but your replies here suggest that you did not mean that the WI polling error was slightly above average — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris and i think your model's estimate may be a better measure of whether people had 'appropriate' expectations for WI polling than moving the goal posts all the way to 'no result is a surprise' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris it wasn't exactly a dunk, at least not on your model. i was sympathizing with it, in a certain sense, as i do think it was reasonable for your model to be surprised--even if not quite 98% surprised--by the WI polls. they were bad, including ours! it wasn't 'slightly above avg' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris https://t.co/Vtt3H32MiG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @DKElections: BIG NEWS: We're excited to announce that with the release of Pennsylvania, Daily Kos Elections now has the 2020 presidenti… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jparkABC: Breaking: American radio personality Rush Limbaugh, 70, died this morning at his home in Palm Beach, Florida - his wife Kathr… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Both sides are trying to pass voting laws, including HR1. Two of the biggest GOP concerns (voter ID and mail voting) could be negotiable from a Dem partisan standpoint. It may not be possible to act on that information, but it's important information https://t.co/udP1FyC64D — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Mail is mainly used by the most reliable voters (and older voters) https://t.co/ffkoIAYMcx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

From a strictly partisan standpoint, I'd think Democrats would take automatic voter reg and/or same day registration for eliminating no-excuse absentee voting https://t.co/Z5rR8CHnwN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To some extent (though i think early voting can be limited too), but I don't think there's much question that that mail ballots front-load voting compared to in-person early voting, particularly in volatile info settings like a primary https://t.co/wAp0GPAfNO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yes, and I love voting by mail! But that doesn't change that it has some real disadvantages and that no party obviously gains from it, so it could be negotiable https://t.co/1bXWUbP7LD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are many disadvantages: ballots cast before all info available, days before a result, unsecured ballots in transit, depends on often late third party delivery, mediocre verification leads to *both* unneeded rejections and credibility issues https://t.co/iBxd2kOOnr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's no serious reason to think Democrats benefit from mail absentee voting and it does have some downsides for the electoral system. Dems could even trade it for something they should care about, if a bipartisan electoral bill was possible (doubt it) https://t.co/0u7QZEVmH1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

FWIW, there's a fine anti-mail ballot opinion /thinkpiece piece to be written from the left/Dem standpoint, and it could easily be an element of a hypothetical but not-going-to-happen bipartisan bill intended to improve the electoral system https://t.co/rPWGgsblYm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't think there's much serious dissent from the view that, as of today, the GOP nomination is Trump's if he wants it in 2024, but that's just how it stands https://t.co/n0aP6G7RLC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @burgessev: Burr votes GUILTY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Also persuasive — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think that’s a persuasive answer, at least rhetorically — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Question for the lawyers (and as I am not a lawyer, this could be a really dumb question but it is an earnest one): if a majority of the Senate votes that Trump incited insurrection, why isn’t he barred from office, given the way 14a article 3 is written, even without conviction? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@trio1111 @davidshor yeah maybe they shouldn't risk it after 2020 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor (stipulating that the non-latino electorate remains the same) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor i understand what you're saying, in terms of the post-16 swing, but i do think if democrats were given the option to make GA 25% hispanic or whatever that they'd probably take it lol — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

They are/have, depending on your measure! In fact, Texas has moved left faster than Georgia since 04/08/12 (though not 16, thanks to the Hispanic shift) https://t.co/6btT9i6f6X — PolitiTweet.org