Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jbouie @jonathanchait this seems more like an important part of the 'problem' than the solution — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ArmstrongDrew: This Biden administration says there will be enough vaccine for all U.S. adults by **the end of May.** This is in line… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollcat and i think it's very easy to imagine an 'x' factor on such a large scale, given what we already see in various benchmarking exercises/authoritative government data. we wouldn't believe polls could be off by 15 pts on the BA+ share of adults if we didn't have proof! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollcat well, the conclusion that error on issues < error on pres. ballot only holds if you assume that the source of nonresponse is presidential vote choice. if it's something else, it's possible that it's more highly correlated with another issue question than presidential vote — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollcat i'm not sure i'd go so far as to say that this exercise is misleading, but i do think this is making a huge and undefended assumption: that presidential vote choice is the source of nonresponse bias, and not another variable correlated with presidential vote choice — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollcat i'm not sure i'd go so far as to say that this exercise is misleading, but i do think this is making a huge and undefended assumption: that presidential vote choice is the source nonresponse bias, and not another variable correlated with presidential vote choice — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@charlotteeffect @jon_m_rob @nataliemj10 @Catalist_US idk compared to all the other challenges in polling though, being at D+5 in PA v. D+3.7 or whatever probably ranks pretty low — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NateSilver538: Sorry if this is a bit random, but the fact that Biden easily won the Democratic primary despite having little support f… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Many of these issues, I would note, were recognized as threats to the Dems before the election. You can find serious folks concerned that mail balloting was going to cost them the election, because their folks were being channeled into a riskier voting method — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Depends a lot on the state, but depending on the circumstances some combination of: need to apply well in advance, navigating ballot/envelope, signature verification, needing a stamp, USPS reliability, etc. are all extra barriers to a counted vote https://t.co/EYjEhpjoLE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(As a result, mail voting has tended to be disproportionately used by old, reliable, high education, relatively white voters) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One minor thing: mail voting is not necessarily an easy way to vote. It is a way to vote that doesn't involve leaving your house, and that is *one* important element of whether something is easy, but it is difficult in other respects https://t.co/iR1pwv27zE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@indivisible592 if done at the federal level, yeah. oregon too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Obviously, that basic fact really opens up the room to negotiate (again, on paper). At the same time, ending absentee mail balloting rationalizes many reforms to improve accessibility that Ds would ordinarily be alone in demanding (like a national election holiday) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Why? Well, for starters, and as I've said a few times--to the objection of many twitter replies lol--no excuse absentee mail voting is certainly something Democrats ought to be able to negotiate on from the standpoint of both self-interest and lower-case 'd' democratic values. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

No one is particularly interested in a grand bargain on election administration, but the new GOP focus on mail balloting really does open things up, on paper (emphasis on “on paper”) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JohnJHarwood: on demise of $15 min-wage in covid bill, remember this from ⁦@ernietedeschi⁩: “Averaging federal/state/local laws, the e… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @joshHuder: The “parliamentarian shouldn’t determine what the Senate does!” crowd is really overlooking the “parliamentarian is serving… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@IChotiner where do i preorder — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DanRosenheck @gelliottmorris @imkahloon @JohnPrideaux a lot of important dogs didn't bark for the dems in the midterms in WI/FL, and that proved pretty telling — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @DouthatNYT: My suggestion for today is that conservatives should carefully read @powellnyt's work before making certain reflexive and e… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@databyler i can't find it now, but someone offered it as an answer to this article (which i was not apart of) and i think it's a very nice geographic way of thinking about 'old' v. 'new' america https://t.co/aVdbO7y3yn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Autarkh @databyler well there used to be something in the water: the basis for an agrarian economy and settlement — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@databyler https://t.co/pEpYIknGTR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mattyglesias: People are asking too much of the CDC — their longstanding guidelines say that all steak should be cooked to at least med… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MNboyinCali 2018: GOP+2.8 on turnout, basically same as '20 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @susannecraig: 1. N.Y. prosecutors looking into Donald Trump's businesses are about to get his tax returns and other financial records.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One last anecdote on the role of the midterms in creating the turnout myth: Iowa results v. partisan turnout edge* 2012: Obama+6; GOP+3.3 2014: Ernst+8; GOP+9.2 2016: Trump+8; GOP+4.5 2020: Trump+8, GOP+2.6 *defined by dif btwn mjr party electorate and registrants by party reg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But yes, people got the "Obama coalition" wrong in some fundamental ways https://t.co/m8wFBkB4P6 or if you prefer post-16 https://t.co/nQVGmseZsX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And it was reinforced by the contrast of Democratic midterm losses in 10/14, which were certainly exacerbated by a less favorable turnout. Democrats lost the plot when they tried to explain 2016 (and now 2020) away in the same way https://t.co/V9ljAFYWpB — PolitiTweet.org