Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 1, 2021

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Mon Feb 22 21:16:58 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But yes, people got the "Obama coalition" wrong in some fundamental ways https://t.co/m8wFBkB4P6 or if you prefer post-16 https://t.co/nQVGmseZsX — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 22, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And it was reinforced by the contrast of Democratic midterm losses in 10/14, which were certainly exacerbated by a less favorable turnout. Democrats lost the plot when they tried to explain 2016 (and now 2020) away in the same way https://t.co/V9ljAFYWpB — PolitiTweet.org

I feel like some of this has come from a romanticized revisionist history of Obama, that his win was entirely a fun… https://t.co/GbHJB453hE

Posted Feb. 22, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One last anecdote on the role of the midterms in creating the turnout myth: Iowa results v. partisan turnout edge* 2012: Obama+6; GOP+3.3 2014: Ernst+8; GOP+9.2 2016: Trump+8; GOP+4.5 2020: Trump+8, GOP+2.6 *defined by dif btwn mjr party electorate and registrants by party reg — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 22, 2021