Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mlatner @ElectProject @davedaley3 well it actually has; it has exacerbated the electoral impact of the gerrymander in texas! it has, more modestly, attenuated the impact of the gerrymander in ohio. and so on. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @davedaley3 @mlatner tldr: if geography hurts democrats less than it did a decade ago, that's actually an argument that... helps anti-gerrymandering folks. my god — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @davedaley3 @mlatner tldr: if geography hurts democrats less than they did a decade ago, that's actually an argument that... helps anti-gerrymandering folks. my god — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @davedaley3 @mlatner i understand that people are very concerned about whether anyone says anything that can be construed to fit a narrative that they don't like. but panic over that possibility doesn't need to force us to colossally misread a tweet thread — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @davedaley3 @mlatner what did i say that is being taken issue with, exactly? nothing here suggests anything about the sun belt gerrymanders not being gerrymanders... it actually implies the exact opposite (if dems have a geography edge in texas... the gerrymander there is vicious) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @annalouiesuss: One Uyghur region had a near-zero birth rate in 2020, which Zenz added "is intended to be achieved through 'family plann… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@TrueNorth4ever when the vikings or twins are displayed as MSP on the scoreboard, i'll change — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, that's not the way maps are drawn or evaluated now. But it's interesting that, technically, I do think that congress could do a national redistricting commission-or state commissions subsidiary to a national evaluation of partisan balance — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But if there's a big regional split in geographic bias, then evaluating the maps nationwide might yield a different perspective. Perhaps a map with a Dem majority in TX and an R majority in PA/MI/WI might be fair--or at least far more fair than it seemed from any single state — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One of the odd consequence of state-based redistricting is that each state map is evaluated independently. Similarly, the gerrymandering tests are all applied by state: if you draw a map with 5Rs and 3Ds in WI or 22Ds and 16Rs in TX, you have a gerrmander — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Don't get me wrong: Democrats are still at the overall disadvantage nationwide. But I do think the growing regional split is interesting and does have some consequences for the gerrymandering debate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Texas is the most obvious case. If you drew a partisan-blind map with compact, county/city-based CDs, you'd have a very real chance of drawing a map where Biden won a majority of CDs, much as a similar technique often yields Trump favored maps in PA/WI/MI, etc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The result is that there are several red/Sun Belt states where the Democrats have a big geographic advantage. There, they win metro areas efficiently, 60/40 (and with great population-vote ratios in Latino areas), while the GOP wastes votes with huge rural margins — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Dems also have an added, albeit odd, advantage (with respect to the popular vote) thanks to low turnout among Latino voters. That allows Democrats to win districts with relatively few votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But the story in the red states and Sun Belt is different in a more fundamental way. There, the GOP does win rural areas by an overwhelming margin--matching what Dems do in the urban north, and, importantly, more than Dems in southern cities. At same time, Ds flip the burbs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Democratic inefficiency story is still more-or-less true in the North, albeit to a lesser degree than '12: Despite Trump's rural gains, the GOP still doesn't win rural areas in MI/PA/WI/MN/NY by anything like the margin than Dems win DET/PHI/MIL/MIN/DET/NY, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Democratic inefficiency story is still more-or-less true in the North. Despite Trump's rural gains, the GOP still doesn't win rural areas in MI/PA/WI/MN/NY by anything like the margin than Dems win DET/PHI/MIL/MIN/DET/NY, etc. That puts the Democrats at a real disadvantage — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Trump elections somewhat complicated this story. Like Obama, Trump often ran up the score mainly in places that were already red. Yes, he did flip blue rural areas (IA/OH), but Clinton/Biden was also flipping a very similar number of red suburbs (GA6, etc) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The geograhpic problem was simple: in the blue/purple states, Obama's strength mainly depended on running up the score in areas that were already blue (thus yielding few new D districts), while Republicans won rural/exurban areas narrowly, netting more districts with fewer votes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

From 2010-2014, the main story about the Democratic disadvantage in the House centered on purple/blue states where Democrats faced a two part problem: Republican gerrymandering and a Democratic 'geographic' inefficiency problem — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing about Democratic gains in the Sun Belt and Republican gains in the Rust Belt is that it's at least beginning to upend the 2010-era story about gerrymandering, redistricting, and the Democratic 'geographic' disadvantage in the House — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @allahpundit: thought about this quote all night https://t.co/3sGqRYr6A6 https://t.co/OoHs8nQtwH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JMilesColeman @mcimaps why was he suspended? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: It's here (please clap). https://t.co/LQAzBFX7Ts — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @YouGovAmerica: The CDC recommendation to pause Johnson & Johnson vaccine use causes public confidence in the vaccine to sink 15pts Per… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EchelonInsights can we get an xtab by hesitancy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @WAStateArchives: Something we learned today: between April 24, 1854 and January 12, 1858, Walla Walla County was HUUUGE and stretched a… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @hezaproject: Our conclusions? Mailing every voter a ballot increases turnout; the other reforms have far smaller effects. The partisan… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Or it means that McGovern '72 continues to exert influence on life in SD today https://t.co/Ggt7Jkn2rE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Cxn: my characterization of WA/OR eligibility here isn't quite right, as many noted. They haven't yet opened it up to everyone under 60/65, but they do allow certain people to be vaccinated under age 60/65, if they meet additional criteria like a preexisting conditions etc — PolitiTweet.org