Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm sure this has been said a million times, but Ron DeSantis has to be feeling pretty good about tonight — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Democrats need to win one of two tossups -- Nevada and Georgia -- provided they win Arizona, which isn't exactly a totally sure thing given the opacity of the data and the obvious biases of various kinds of votes there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's taken a long time, but we made it to "lean Democratic" on the Senate https://t.co/cairqgPfJF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's not 2020 in Georgia anymore. There are vastly fewer outstanding mail ballot than there even were in the runoff, let alone the November election. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We'll see you in December. Looks like we're heading to a runoff in Georgia, based on analysis of precinct data heroically scraped by @ilana_marcus and @christinezhang et al. Best guess: Warnock makes it to 49.5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Maybe Florida will finally begin to erode the popular-vote Electoral College gap by giving the GOP a large solid red state — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @adamrpearce: nyt v. wapo live forecasts https://t.co/63atPJ9HXr https://t.co/MZklL5Ub3h — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I tried really hard to remember to change to the 17 game season. but i'm too tired https://t.co/mC5pHaTibJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(it's the 4th quarter in the second half of this analogy, btw) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At the beginning of a football game, a 5-13 team might have a 20% chance to beat a playoff team. But now they're down by 3 points with the ball with a meaningful amount of time left. Now just 30%! But like it doesn't take much more — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Our estimate is that the GOP has a 73% chance to win. That's not very different from the beginning of the night. But the nature of this chance is very different. Here's an analogy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's not going to be a call in the House anytime soon and the possibility of a Dem win isn't a theoretical proposition at this point. The GOP edge depends on a lot of western races where we're not going to know the result for a while, and often where they're already behind — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Would have bet *a lot* on this one being wrong — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, that's why you just do the best methodology you can come up with and publish the results https://t.co/TaU8ZDOY1U — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Fetterman on track to win in Pennsylvania, with a greater than 95% chance to win, according to our estimates (this is not a projection) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Fetterman outrunning Biden just about everywhere in Pennsylvania. Our estimate now leans Democratic https://t.co/KXfvvsug1e — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Democratic chances of winning the House have... slowly started to tick up. Now up 29%, up from about 21% at the start. They're favored to win 208 seats up from 203 in our poll-based starting estimates — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The GOP's chance of taking the House has stayed steady in the seventies all night, but Democrats now favored to hold 208 seats -- up from 203 at the beginning... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With Paulding county out of the AP data, Georgia is back to a true tossup. Still very few places in the state where we have completed data so... we just have to wait and see to some extent — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This looks like a likely error in the AP data from Paulding (which powers our results page and the needle). It'll be interesting to see how our estimate shifts when this is gone https://t.co/KKSwBQQ6O8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier looks like an AP error; will get it fixed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Still early, but ... Fetterman running ahead of Biden the Pennsylvania counties that seem like they might be complete https://t.co/xUn4oxC6nW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So far, Democrats are running about a point ahead of our expectations outside of Florida, with the GOP lead in the House starting to come down a bit Not many signs of a red wave at this point. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(these changes aren't attributable to the Louisiana error, just more returns) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The needle is back, with Louisiana fixed. Senate remains a tossup -- the only big change I noticed: Republicans are now heavy favorites in North Carolina; Hassan showing plain strength in New Hampshire — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Budd now plainly outperform in completed counties in the eastern half of the state, making him a heavy favorite https://t.co/blW4LhYC5B — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

An intriguing early clue, as we wait for more election day vote: the first few completed counties in rural, western NC show Beasley doing better Biden https://t.co/uQQLOvSxNg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RealBenisons thank you for flagging — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're going to double check the other noncontested races, but this fix looks like it will move the Senate to R 51% probability — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're going to have to pull the needle off the page to fix this. Louisiana appears to have been coded as Democratic at some point, adding an extra seat for them. All other estimates would be unaffected https://t.co/xj5iDNYcy3 — PolitiTweet.org