Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview @hakeemjefferson @BrendanNyhan @jon_m_rob @gelliottmorris @mattyglesias @rickhasen all you have to do is take him more-or-less at his word on his motives for supporting the filibuster. maybe you don't, but it's a better lead than hoping he does the thing he says he won't do for a thing he doesn't really like — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @jbview @hakeemjefferson @BrendanNyhan @gelliottmorris @mattyglesias @rickhasen the most important thing is it's entirely untested. it is very difficult to say, on the one hand, that democracy is in peril and, on the other, leave every single stone unturned in trying to figure out whether any added safeguards are possible — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@karlbykarlsmith @jbview @hakeemjefferson @BrendanNyhan @jon_m_rob @gelliottmorris @mattyglesias @rickhasen sure, let me rephrase to 'figure out a way around a filibuster.' i think the logic holds either way — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview @hakeemjefferson @BrendanNyhan @jon_m_rob @gelliottmorris @mattyglesias @rickhasen HR1 is the opposite, and as a consequence it (and the Manchin compromises) is a doomed vehicle for abandoning the filibuster, even though you think that eliminating the filibuster is the path to HR1/Manchin comp. passage — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview @hakeemjefferson @BrendanNyhan @jon_m_rob @gelliottmorris @mattyglesias @rickhasen yes, that effort will probably fail--though you never know--esp if your aiming for something anything like HR1. but failure is prerequisite to your chance at 50: you hope that you fail in such a convincing and earnest way that Manchin revises his views on the filibuster. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview @hakeemjefferson @BrendanNyhan @jon_m_rob @gelliottmorris @mattyglesias @rickhasen at first glance, it seems there are two ways to pass a bill: --eliminate the filibuster; --get 60 votes. But the guy you need to eliminate the filibuster says he wants you to try to get 60 votes. So any path to passage starts the same way — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview @BrendanNyhan @jon_m_rob @gelliottmorris @mattyglesias @rickhasen well no, he wouldn't be persuaded by either bill, because neither his proposal nor HR1 represented a serious legislative effort at a bipartisan election bill — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @jon_m_rob @jbview @gelliottmorris @mattyglesias @rickhasen (let's not lose sight of the obvious fact that you still need to triangulate on vote 60, and have that fail, to ever have a shot to persuade manchin to give up the filibuster) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @JeremyStahl @gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @rickhasen one possible source of ambiguity is that i see the 'HR1 push' as almost entirely outsider driven. Biden didn't do anything. Schumer didn't do anything. They just put it up for a vote and tried to get Manchin to at least vote for cloture to look unified when they weren't — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @JeremyStahl @gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @rickhasen as i understand your point, the latter group--HR1 advocates--basically forced the WH/Senate leadership to try HR1 before moving on to serious options. that's not really my interpretation of events, to be honest? but i still think it's basically consonate with my point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @JeremyStahl @gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @rickhasen i think we're not always being clear about who we're talking about any given time. there are basically two groups: the WH/Senate leadership, which I see as responding rationally to their options by ignoring HR1, and those really pushing HR1 over the last six months — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @JeremyStahl @gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @rickhasen decision makers didn't invest six months in HR1. they ignored it, and gave activists a show vote. that was a strategic decision, given the options and incentives. it is not the decision reformers and activists would have wanted, and they shaped the incentives and options — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @JeremyStahl @gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @rickhasen that's the thing, they weren't making a strategic mistake. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @rickhasen and as a consequence of it being ignored, none of the groundwork has been laid for any subsequent effort. it is beginning now, and while it may still yield something it is quite obvious that the chances are lower than they would have been if it started earlier — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @rickhasen we agree on that — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @rickhasen well, yes, HR1 was voted on to appease activists. but no, HR1 wasn't prioritized over a nonexistent alternative to appease activists. voting rights, as a whole, was ignored because elites didn't see a credible option and so they went to infrastructure — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @rickhasen they didn't. they were handed one messy option--HR1--that was so far from something credible that they said uh.. yeah that's great.. how about infrastructure — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @rickhasen i should also note that i don't think it moved the 'overton window,' which might be another way one could argue it helped — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @rickhasen not to be unsophisticated, but i don't see how losing six months--the first six months of a presidency, the first six months after 1/6--couldn't have a cost, especially when the initial item doesn't naturally lead into the relevant subsequent options — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias @rickhasen if you subscribe to any version of 'democracy is in peril,' then yes i would think wasting six months on a DOA bill--one that was basically ignored by the WH, leadership, the Senate bc it was so far away from something plausible--would constitute some sort of catastrophe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias @rickhasen and like the GOP base in the '15 repeal and replace push, activists and progressives just aren't in on the HR1 joke. but in a way it's worse this time, because there weren't credible, desirable 'skinny repeal' options back in 2015, and could be options worth investigating now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias @rickhasen and like the GOP base in the 2015 repeal and replace push, activists and progressives are just not in on the HR1 joke. but in a way it's worse this time, because there weren't really plausible, credible, desirable 'skinny repeal' options for the base — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias @rickhasen and if you're a progressive, perhaps equally important--but somehow constantly ignored--fact is that if the filibuster is to die, it will be killed by the failure of a serious legislative effort, not a show vote on a bill that can credibly be characterized as a 'messaging bill' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias @rickhasen i suspect a serious effort would fail. most do. immigration, toomey-manchin, maybe soon this infrastructure push all failed. but they were serious. they earnestly sought a route to passage, as opposed to,say, HR1 or the ~2015~ GOP repeal and replace push (most analogus case tbh) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias @rickhasen but either way, i truly fail to see the relevance of the fact that democrats could get their way if they could get their way. if you're a reformer you have to try and win the game in front of you, not the game you wish you could play — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias @rickhasen it really wouldn't have — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @jon_m_rob @BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias @rickhasen many serious legislative efforts fail, for the reasons you cite. a serious voting rights push might well fail too. what is distinct about the voting rights push is that it is totally unserious and no one has made an effort to pass a law — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @jon_m_rob @BrendanNyhan and as much as democrats abhor the motives behind these laws, we've just learned they're willing to deal on the single GOP action that's most obviously in conflict with their principles: voter ID — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @jon_m_rob @BrendanNyhan idk, unlike most general areas where the Ds want action, the GOP actually does seem to want a bunch of voting reforms based on the conduct of their state legislatures. and this is not a case where each side's proposals are usually mutually exclusive, like more v. less taxation — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias @rickhasen more generally, it is very hard to assess what congress can do when no one appears serious about trying to pass a bill. every stone is left unturned — PolitiTweet.org