Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's no way around the fact that this creates risk to convenience voting options. But there are lots of different ways of reconciling these various standards, and they give serious arguments to those who want to protect access--including convenience voting options — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Most analysis--including my own--has focused on one aspect of the 1982 standard, which the court noted in its decision: convenience voting options, like early and mail voting, may not be entitled to the same level of protection. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One interesting thing to mull in the wake of the Arizona decision last week is how to reconcile several different 'guideposts' in the court decision: the need to judge the whole of an election system, the 1982 standard, and the idea of a 'usual burden' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Is there any corroborating evidence for this? Interesting if true, but hard not wonder whether this might be subject to the same post-2016 bias in measuring Trump/GOP support https://t.co/l7Wewye3es — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NYTnickc: It also includes two provisions Democrats in the House had been seeking: *a provision for some form of ballot curing *remov… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NYTnickc: It also includes two provisions Democrats in the House had been seeking: *a provision for some form of ballot curing *remov… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NYTnickc: ICYMI: Last night, Texas House Repubs filed their new elections bill. It: *bans 24 hour and drive through voting *adds new I… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NYTnickc: The bill *does not* include limits on Sunday voting or a provision to make it easier to overturn an election, two of the more… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin @jon_m_rob and just for fun, if you use the white - black feeling thermometer gap, as opposed to just black thermometer reading, as your independent variable you roughly triple the net-effect of attitudes toward blacks on Trump fav (now explains 5% of trump fav) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @gdimeweather: Just want to give a shoutout to @NHC_Atlantic for absolutely nailing the forecast track of Tropical Storm #Elsa The fir… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin @jon_m_rob to that point, only 33 percent of Trump supporters rate blacks equally to whites or better, but 81% give blacks a score over 50 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin @jon_m_rob to that point, only 33 percent of Trump supporters rate blacks equally to whites or better, but only 81% give blacks a score over 50% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob tldr: i fear that the very understandable focus on causal inference and regression outputs wind up biasing some subsequent interpretive questions — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob and that's not only true in this case--a similar focus on effects can lead you to wind up forgetting about the role of white working class voters in the obama coalition, even though they're the largest group of obama voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob to your initial tweet, the net-effect of aniums is a function of both the amount of animus in the population and its effect on trump support. the former can be as important as the latter, and i don't think it gets talked about often enough — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob you're right, marginal effect wasn't the word i was looking for there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob it also seemed to me that animus toward muslims was the near exclusive driver of the effect. at least personally, i would have interpreted the results somewhat differently if it was driven by the groups coequally — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob i did a quick replication effort this AM, and it seemed like Trump's overall favorability rating would drop by 2 points if no one had animus toward democrats. granted they have a lot of controls on this regression; not sure if that's how they'd think about effect in this case — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob i really wish more of these papers dealt with marginal effects, not just correlation coefficients — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Seems like making political partisans a protected class would have some implications for partisan gerrymandering, voter restrictions, CRT teachers and so on https://t.co/mFsYHrp8sZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's a slightly narrower, more quantitative, but fundamentally similar version of this argument, along with a Twitter thread sort of explicitly walking through the aforementioned contemporary implications of this interpretation https://t.co/1zvDrMSvMH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

After ranked choice, Adams at 43% of all ballots cast—enough to avoid a runoff on the old system — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the end, 139459 exhausted ballots, or 15% of ballots cast. No way to know whether they would have broken for Garcia by a 62-38 margin--like the other non-Garcia/Adams ballots--or if those voters simply disliked both. But certainly enough voters there to cover the margin — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That means she won just over 53% of the new ballots, which is more in line with what we would expect based on the geography of the absentee vote, though still not exceeded it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Deleted a thread on Garcia's showing in the absentee vote. I copied her prior tally down at 348k, not 343k, and thus deprived her of 5k absentee votes in my calculation. https://t.co/mAIOtZojlg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(in general, if a geographic turnout pattern favors a candidate, you usually expect that candidate to do even better than the geographic data alone would suggest) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(it's worth noting that this means Adams did better in absentee votes than in-person, after controlling for the geographic distribution of those ballots, which is somewhat surprising) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Adams still leads by 1 percentage point after another 118k ballots are counted Garcia only won the new ballots by just 1 percentage point, barely better at all than her performance among in-person voters https://t.co/hBNtZIvpH6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(and since a few people asked, this was an earnest question. i can understand the case for favoring either garcia or adams, but i am surprised that there was such a large swing. i was wondering, as i said, whether there was an explanation for such a big flip) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(and since a few people asked, this was an earnest question. i can understand the case for favoring either garcia or adams, but i am surprised that there was such a large swing. i was wondering, as i said, whether there was a reason to explain the swing) — PolitiTweet.org