Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's not a perfect pattern, of course. There are definitely exceptions. But most of the extreme cases fit. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The main thing that stands out to me about this election: idiosyncratic results by state. In some states, Democrats excelled. In others, the red wave materialized. The stakes of abortion/democracy by state explains a lot of it. https://t.co/xhyYTNPPZQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(I actually don't think there's any post-election count in CA-22, even though I think the numbers elsewhere point toward Democratic gains there) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On the flip side, the early post-election day returns in California have looked good for Democrats so far, at least in relatively diverse areas, very much keeping their hopes alive in CA-22, etc. The post-election count is still very early in a lot of these districts tho — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Dems still lead in WA-3, but Joe Kent has led the post-election night count by a pretty wide margin. There's enough vote left for him to retake the lead if the trend continues — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Dems still lead in WA-3, but Joe Kemp has led the post-election night count by a pretty wide margin. There's enough vote left for him to retake the lead if the trend continues — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(cxn on previous version, which characterized GOP as holding the Senate) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The path for Republicans to win the Senate is getting... awfully thin, as Democrats post strong showings in mail ballots tonight in Arizona and Nevada. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The path for Republicans to hold the Senate is getting... awfully thin, as Democrats post strong showings in mail ballots tonight in Arizona and Nevada. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The needle is automated, but huge amounts of post-election info (like Clark has x number of mail ballots left) is not in our data feeds. It's from a random press conference. We'd have to enter it manually https://t.co/nCh4AK3Jnq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JoeNC05 fixed; thank you for flagging! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Three small counties in Arizona appear to have largely wrapped up their count. Kelly is outperforming Biden by at least 7 points in each one. https://t.co/b1qpWAUCBQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It was -- though the blind 2012-era 'trust the polls' mantra is not really defensible (or credible) right now and it's especially indefensible when the fundamentals are different https://t.co/utf9DyJ7sQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Tracking the fight for the House. This is a must-click if you're trying to figure out what's going on. https://t.co/tQnrdNLIlf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yeah, I guess this is probably it https://t.co/VHvh4BrS0m — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And finally, I think it would have been inappropriate to be overly confident in the traditional polling this cycle -- which was best for Dems -- given the absence of any real 'fix' post-2020. That kind of confidence wouldn't have been credible, even if it was appropriate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another challenge: the 'fundamentals' were quite Republican this cycle (and those fundamentals were confirmed in the polling, not just 'vibes'), which shaded analysis toward the GOP at basically every stage — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I do think there were some interesting challenges in this election, which maybe I'll write about: One challenge: the state-level variation in the results (FL/NY bad for Ds, v. PA/MI great, etc.) made it very hard to synthesize seemingly conflicting data. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Maybe I'm naive, but I'm a little surprised by the amount of griping about the polling that I'm seeing. The polls did pretty well! The 'traditional' polls did *really* well. Doesn't get much better — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I will say... it would still be pretty daunting to try and keep these turnout estimates updated with factual information in every state once a day. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think that's an interesting idea that we could consider in the future. We're not setup/staffed to do it now, but I think there's a way we could set ourselves up to do it https://t.co/9k22xorP2f — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You can see the interrelationship between these two problems: the work to stay accurate goes up, while our capacity to monitor declines — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Two: we simply cannot be staffed to monitor the needle full time in perpetuity. There's one needle team -- not a day team and a night team -- and we can't do election night hours forever (esp since the pre-election period doesn't involve any sleep either) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Many asked why the needle turns off. Two related reasons. One: once our turnout estimates (200k votes left, +/- 50k) get replaced by hard facts (173k votes left), we're put in a spot where we're always inaccurate or forced to be constantly updating based on reported data. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I would think so. The Dems holding up well in the post-election mail increases their chances a lot in a place like WA-3, where on Election Night the needle would understandably wonder whether it's 'blue mirage' until shown otherwise https://t.co/y0580z8J1O — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I see some early talk about the House popular vote today. I haven't been able to dig in myself, but it would not be any surprise if the Democrats have the advantage in translating votes to seats https://t.co/97DdrFO7LB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: FWIW, anyone who’s proclaimed they’ve seen enough in #CO03 doesn’t know how to interpret election data. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict needle estimate was something like R+2 when we turned it off, though not sure about handling of uncontested races etc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If Dems had fared as well in NY as they did elsewhere, they might very well be favored to win the chamber — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the Dems end up losing the House, I think it can be said that they lost it in New York: they blew redistricting, and then they badly underperformed a still-very-winnable set of districts, even while faring well elsewhere — PolitiTweet.org