Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr you're really just going to respond to this allegation with I should have promoted you more? this is a serious charge — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr the start of this thread is you saying Biden+15 in KY is 'predicted' by your trump+30 estimate. the merit of your work, whatever it might have been, is totally obscured when you construe your 'theory' to mean anything--even something ludicrous like tossup doesn't mean tossup — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's definitely an argument that the debates are too late this cycle, and I actually can imagine them thinking it makes sense to move the last debate to early September https://t.co/Q3Z0ATJMHd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @spettypi: Trump campaign pauses TV ad spending for 'review' of messaging strategy w ⁦@bkamisar⁩ https://t.co/OtrmpDPoE1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As the story notes, spending patterns change and Trump could certainly return in Michigan. And if the race tightens, I'd sure think they would be. But the race isn't especially close right now, and that's the point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @kevinroose: The #2 most-engaged post on Facebook today is a Breitbart video of a group of doctors claiming that hydroxychloroquine is "… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And cann drill into these distinctions when appropriate. Central city block groups with a density >10000 sq/mi are Biden 74, Trump 14 in our poll; those under that are Biden 59, Trump 28. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The most important one--and it's hard to believe:the study does not appear to even consider the effect of weighting on education under any of the scenarios tested? If they did, it's not reported. So... that is obviously an issue for the whole thing — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

She represents 1/29th of Florida. I wouldn't expect anyone to know her right now, much as I don't expect anyone in NY to know a random the name of the House Rep from Buffalo or something https://t.co/d5sLdp34SL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: The state polling is entirely consistent with a 10 pt lead for Biden nationally... I think for many folks... Their gut… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you count Ohio, that's less educated than Michigan too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Obviously, choosing 'less distinguishing, non-black woman' is going to be tough. Warren, perhaps the likeliest candidate, probably violates the 'don't lose the election' condition. I know that will disappoint many of you, but I think it's hard to avoid that conclusion — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Given that the news environment plays such a role in that calculation, I'd argue they should delay as long as possible before making the choice. The merits and dismerits of individual candidates--prosecutor, for ex--even play differently in different news environments — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

you appear to be the only other person in the world who has actually looked at her forecast. well done lol — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer look it's just not about you--if it was then these articles/tweets, all from before i knew you, just wouldn't exist. https://t.co/o4ToVarjgU https://t.co/nQVGmseZsX https://t.co/BCXG6Jw5Ai https://t.co/Y5JKELogS7 https://t.co/7jndMCBes1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tysonbrody it doesn't help the EC-PV gap, since whites with a college degree represent a below average share of the electorate in every major battleground except MN. it could certainly be enough to squeak out a dem win anyway — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is true if you look look at most of the live phone polls going around right now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And, look I understand why people are distrustful of the polls after what happened four years ago, but right now, Biden's would easily withstanding another 2016-sized polling error or a wide gap between the Electoral College and the nation as a whole — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jacknicas: The NYT's top opinion editor just lost his job over a very dumb op-ed last week. Meanwhile, all weekend this has been the W… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @davidshor: It’s pretty cool that our work with @ernietedeschi ended up predicting the contours of today’s job report nearly a month out… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @AlanIAbramowitz the poll we're talking about in this conversation would literally be off this chart — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have a similar trend from ABC/Post this week, which was went from Biden+2 in March to Biden+10 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It'll vary from poll to poll and pollster to pollster. But I'd guess it averages out around 3 or 4 percentage points https://t.co/lVpe7u1cVV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And let us recall that this pattern is probably driven in part by the partisanship of low turnout voters in these areas who sit out specials (young, Hispanic voters in CA; white, working class voters in WI), and who will vote in higher numbers in November https://t.co/7KrA1qHs7y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And let us recall that this pattern is probably driven in part by the partisanship of low turnout voters who sit out specials (young, Hispanic voters in CA; white, working class voters in WI), and who will vote in higher numbers in November — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And let us recall that this pattern is probably driven in part by the partisanship of low turnout voters in these areas who sit out specials (young, Hispanic voters in CA; white, working class voters in WI), and who will vote in higher numbers in November https://t.co/7KrA1qHs7y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And let's not waste any of our time--or tweets at me--looking at unbalanced battleground subsamples from national polls? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Take this 10 question poll! It's unscientific, yes, but it does have a purpose. Feel free to share https://t.co/DE2rgEjVRy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let's suppose that right now, I polled my Twitter feed on its 2020 vote preference, 2016 recalled vote, and some demographics. Let's say I then it to '16 results in TX (trump+9) and TX demographics. I don't really believe that's fundamentally any different than an Emerson poll. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PollsAndVotes do those post-election jumps represent same-day registrants or pre-election registration? — PolitiTweet.org