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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@birdxi1988 @financequant You are indispensable — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Extrachelle Possibility it comes from Vadara, your specialty. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@doronpagot @normonics Additional life expectancy at 0, 80, 100, etc. They drop. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@normonics If you die, no Lindy — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
https://t.co/EXb7UX15gi — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
New mathematics for the Lindy Effect, expressed as absorbing barrier (extinction barrier). This is the INTUITION of… https://t.co/79l0WoPUGU
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Just to explain something about what #Lindy means: it does not mean something is immortal, simply that the force of mortality, or hazard rate, of the probability of going kaput, DROPS with time CONDITIONAL on future survival. From SCFT https://t.co/K72r1K6K9L — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
PROBABILITY QUIZ DU JOUR In 1784, at a dinner in Paris, Cagliostro claimed to be 3500 y. o., in permanent middle a… https://t.co/dak9xR3n25
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
RT @justinamash: They passed 5,593 pages they didn’t read. America, stop letting this happen. Don’t vote for anyone who voted for this. It’… — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
RT @Mehdi_IR_DC: Romans full of fake news. ;) — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Erdogn threatening to take legal action against someone who called him "a dictator" reminds me of a fellow who tried to take me to court for calling him "litigious". — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
The "cure for aging" is to have children. Vastly more effective and adaptive to environmental variations, see #Antifragile Yalli khallaf ma met. https://t.co/vORqwbiBB6 — PolitiTweet.org
David Boxenhorn @davidboxenhorn
@nntaleb Life forms that can regenerate themselves, e.g. many plants, can be ageless. Some animals, e.g. frogs, sta… https://t.co/f3nn2rqkIk
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@davidboxenhorn The "cure for aging" is to have children. Vastly more effective, see #Antifragile. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
RT @nntaleb: @ehdedaidei What the fuck does your comment have to do with my probability quiz? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
4) Note 1: accidents for humans are largely internal malfunction, particularly as we age. Aging is just more accident prone. Note 2: What is memoryless? If a lightbulb has a life expectancy of 3 years, and you've had it on for 10 years, it still has a life expectancy of 3 years — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
4) Note 1: accidents for humans are largely internal, particularly as we age. Their incidence is memoryless. Note 2: What is memoryless? If a lightbulb has a life expectancy of 3 years, and you've had it on for 10 years, it still has a life expectancy of 3 years. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@ehdedaidei I block idiots, nothing personal. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@RoostarHC Fictional story in "Le collier de la reine". — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
MORAL: For a human to be immortal he/she must be error-free. Aging= increasing force of mortality from > fragility. Debate whether people cease to age at ~100 but become accident prone at a constant high rate, 110 same risk of death as 115! Lightbulbs are fragile w/constant FM. https://t.co/gTdqU96MGr — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@ehdedaidei What the fuck does your comment have to do with my probability quiz? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
ANSWER: If you don't age, you must have a constant force of mortality wrt accidents (external/internal vascular). A tiny pr. of an accident cumulates over time to a constant additional Life Exp, a memoryless distr. Some animals have 20y LE regardless of age. Human LE <200y https://t.co/QvZCD72nTn — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@foxyforecaster Even beyond battles: daily life is not risk-free. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@eruditenights He is not perishable since he is set to remain in middle age. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
PROBABILITY QUIZ DU JOUR In 1784, at a dinner in Paris, Cagliostro claimed to be 3500 y. o., in permanent middle age; he partook of most historical battles; he was immortal. Condorcet exposed an error: C could not be that old. Explain C's error & what to do for C to be #Lindy https://t.co/IiTdXLGrc7 — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@4xfutures Outside — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
https://t.co/IitvLFrRmf — PolitiTweet.org
ⴰⴷoⵏⵉⵙ @Lipsie
Gemayzeh - Mar Mkhayel Sunday constructions. https://t.co/RfUJvEXazz
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
RT @nntaleb: Beirut is like a phoenix, its symbol 1) To the right a building harmed by the explosion, to the right entirely fixed. 2) Nothi… — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Beirut is like a phoenix, its symbol 1) To the right a building harmed by the explosion, to the right entirely fixed. 2) Nothing but activity. A lot of repair. 3) Building entirely fixed, next to it is being fixed. 4) In the process. https://t.co/Z03JC6kV3m — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@john_f_hamer @GregLinster Wrong. Lindy is statistical, not deterministic. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
BTW it translates better as between Scylla and Charybdis or rather "from Scylla into..." — PolitiTweet.org
Lebanese Culture & History @LebCulHist
Be mnesabet fasel l chete, kelkoun sem3in 3ibaret "Men ta7t l delfe la ta7t l mezreb". Bas did you know eno every s… https://t.co/Lxfx7JihyP
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
RT @TalebWisdom: "You cannot be both soldier and judge." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb #wisdom — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@byzantinepower You forget Antioch! — PolitiTweet.org