Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@digantsolanki1 @mikeharrisNY No. Libraries SELL books. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@trishankkarthik @altini_marco @hjluks 100% — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

2) You can't see the signals in raw data [top], but becomes clear when taking extrema [maxima or minima]. https://t.co/EaY2vxfEDf — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Some observations on HRV It seems informational when handled using rolling max over 24 hours, using LOG for symmetry. It also seems linked to V02 max, but needs much more data. This is not evidence [yet] but direction for future research. @altini_marco @hjluks https://t.co/tnoigUyFGk — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@ishirubi Because conspiracy theorists are watching like hawks & and conspiracy prone people (like, I assume, you) are spreading every event like a definitive announcement; so, if anything, we have over-reporting (VAERS). One cannot hide mortality. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@scmarco69 Incorrect. Use conditionals. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

https://t.co/jtPJMpKcgq — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Incorrect: Unlike with Zantac, we have billions of jabs, with monitoring; and carcinogenic/DNA effects are necessarily cumulative, hence should have manifested themselves already. [Hiroshima produced early cancers] https://t.co/jtPJMpKcgq — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@SportTheory101 @PeterAttiaMD @rationalwalk @AggregateReads @drjohnm @IbeSaid The dotted line are the intervals, the solid line the center. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@cbeyzad @shaarsh2 This is a loaded question. Do vaccines REDUCE transmission? — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@rationalwalk @AggregateReads @drjohnm @PeterAttiaMD I would consult with @IbeSaid who knows solid papers. He directed me to this one. https://t.co/hB553LrbEu — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@DrMichaelBonner My unaccomplished dream. In a Persian text I get 60-70% of the words. In Shahnomeh, much much less. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@grumpyinnovator @LUmutoniwase @trishankkarthik Papaikonomou. You tried to mock me and Trishank with the German numbers and in the process showed you had no clue talking abt risk factors. Basically you are also proving you shd not talk publicly abt concepts as you can't grasp differences. So stay in your place w/your friends. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@cbeyzad Gellybrain, why don't you apply such a logic to chemotherapy? If drug makers are liable for side effects not offset by lives saved then we would have no drugs. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@trishankkarthik @grumpyinnovator This idiot shd stop chemotherapy on grounds that pharma makes profits and statins are overprescribed. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@grumpyinnovator Anti-mandate is *a priori*: vaxx may or may not work, I am ag. states forcing you *a priori*. Anti-vaxx is against vaccination *because* of some empirical reason related to vaccines. Defending an *a priori* using (in addition) a bogus interpretation of German statistics is BS. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@grumpyinnovator You're an idiot. Anti-Mandate != finding bullshit antivaxx statistics. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@trishankkarthik @HaveScion Ha! Obsessive disorders/hatred such as @normonics is what happens when one lives in isolation in the sole company of babies & farm animals, while not being very bright to start with. Social interaction helps iron out these swings. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

2) Please no theorizing, just data or facts as promoted by the anti-vaxx confraternity. I will try to use THEIR data. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

2) Please no commentary is needed, just data or facts as promoted by the anti-vaxx confraternity. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Dear antivaxx trolls, conspiracy loonies, deranged pseudolibertarians, steroidal brain-atrophied gym rats, etc. What is your data for the fatality rate *from* vaccines? I can use max ignorance probability for the estimation of the upper bound of the risk. https://t.co/WG9eesM5r9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@stone30341602 Yes, convexity = time decay — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@dgghgd That when you invest ONLY look at losses, not profits. #RWRI — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@dgghgd Recall I said you want the pilot of the plane to be realistic, the flight attendants to be optimistic. #RWRI — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@movinyl I block nitpickers. Sorry, nothing personal. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

3/n Reminds me of this exchange: Q: "What do you think is the probability of a merger?" A: "For now, 100%, but this may change". — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

2/n An application pseudoexpert Nate Silver could not grasp w/election forecasting: a probability must INCLUDE the possibility that it would change. The more uncertainty, the more they must be far from 0 or 1. Saying "never" is assigning 0 probability. Max entropy: all prob=½ https://t.co/89QuuwrWyT — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Re: Musk; many are NOT getting the point. It is healthy, realistic & honorable to change one's mind. It is neither honorable nor realistic/rational to (repeatedly) categorically claim that you would *never* change your mind, then change your mind. [Iterated expectations] 1/n — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@TenSigmas Combination. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@kippwjohnson I do indeed love reading ECGs. — PolitiTweet.org