Nassim Nicholas Taleb

@nntaleb ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 6, 2022

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Sat Jul 23 12:15:03 +0000 2022

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

3/n Reminds me of this exchange: Q: "What do you think is the probability of a merger?" A: "For now, 100%, but this may change". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2022

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

2/n An application pseudoexpert Nate Silver could not grasp w/election forecasting: a probability must INCLUDE the possibility that it would change. The more uncertainty, the more they must be far from 0 or 1. Saying "never" is assigning 0 probability. Max entropy: all prob=½ https://t.co/89QuuwrWyT — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2022

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@movinyl I block nitpickers. Sorry, nothing personal. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2022