Nassim Nicholas Taleb

@nntaleb ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 5, 2022

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Sat Jul 23 12:09:38 +0000 2022

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

2/n An application pseudoexpert Nate Silver could not grasp w/election forecasting: a probability must INCLUDE the possibility that it would change. The more uncertainty, the more they must be far from 0 or 1. Saying "never" is assigning 0 probability. Max entropy: all prob=½ https://t.co/89QuuwrWyT — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2022

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Re: Musk; many are NOT getting the point. It is healthy, realistic & honorable to change one's mind. It is neither honorable nor realistic/rational to (repeatedly) categorically claim that you would *never* change your mind, then change your mind. [Iterated expectations] 1/n — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2022

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

3/n Reminds me of this exchange: Q: "What do you think is the probability of a merger?" A: "For now, 100%, but this may change". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2022