Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesFallows True but Australia shows even incredibly strict NPIs are *not* enough to contain the Delta variant on their own. I'd also argue their sluggishness in vaccination is related to their "Zero COVID" policy. They didn't have much urgency and really played up low-risk AZ side effects. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Australia has most of its population under a lockdown so strict as to resemble the terms of house arrest and yet cases are still rising there. I'm not sure why it's example of any sort of success that the US would want to emulate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Lotta people seem pretty excited for #engagement and not that excited for accuracy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende @BallouxFrancois And yet if you disagree with them (on the solution to an extremely complicated political problem) you'll be accused of "politicizing" the debate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BallouxFrancois Any time a claim is described as "dangerous" I tend to interpret that as "probably correct, but inconvenient for my position". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Slavitt is making a factual claim here, or at the very least, a reasonable inference/prediction/interpretation based on the experts he's talking to. I'm sure there's room to disagree with this interpretation/prediction. But that's different from it being a "dangerous take". https://t.co/VE1PaFjF3j — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss @karlbykarlsmith This is highly correlated with use of the phrase "still workin' on it?" when you're almost finished with your meal, which is much more objectionable than the waiter merely introducing himself. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss Also how often does this happen in the US? Maybe 20% of the time? It's not the standard at least not in New York. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EricTopol Yeah it's hard to know. The UK has very good testing now but it was kind of a debacle early on so not sure how many people were impacted in the spring 2020 wave. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EricTopol The UK also got hit hard in several previous waves so possibly more natural immunity there than in Israel. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ThisWeekABC: Following the release of the first district-level 2020 Census results, @NateSilver538 tells @jonkarl that “it’s true that… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro This is a much weaker field of opponents, though, and California is much more reliably Democratic than in 2003. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I would note that the write-in deadline is Aug. 31. Probably a narrow window here for a Tom Steyer type to blanket the state with ads. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's kind of amazing that no 2nd- or even 3rd-tier Democrat put themselves on the recall ballot in case Newsom loses. Someone threw away a ~30% chance or whatever to be the governor of the world's 6th-largest economy! https://t.co/mhuXknoHg3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One reason these Obama Birthday Takes are dumb is they take it as exceptional to hold a social event with "everything going on", when the large % of Americans of all social classes have resumed their social lives if you look at the data or look around. https://t.co/MzQyPTDwAs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We're kind of polarizing toward Red Conference (SEC) vs. Blue Conference. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One could very reasonably argue that vaccines pass a cost-benefit test while other interventions don't. (Personally I'm moderately in favor of mask mandates too under some circumstances in the short run, but not in the long run.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A related bad argument I'm seeing lately is that e.g. "the US is "becoming too reliant on one tool, vaccines". Well, that's because vaccines are BY FAR the best tool. They go MUCH FURTHER than others toward allowing us to resume normal life while GREATLY reducing COVID harms. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Is there a trade off with vaccines for other counties? I don't know, but as a matter of theory, basic economics would suggest that increased demand will increase supply. And as a matter of practice, elected officials are going to look to protect their own citizens first. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Seeing arguments that claim there is a trade-off between giving people 1st/2nd doses and giving people a booster shot. That is EXTREMELY dubious in the US where we are awash in vaccines and have already ordered enough additional vax to cover boosters + kids <12 + some left over. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@R_Thaler @ShengwuLi @akbarpour_ Something like the Wisconsin system would be a lot more sensible. You can trigger an early election via voter petition but then it's a normal election from there with primaries and so forth. https://t.co/8kJ3EmCSZG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Pretty ironic given the 629,000 "Why I'm Leaving New York" essays published since the previous Census. https://t.co/jgZLZqGHx8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Is the judicial branch more popularist than the legislature? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dwallacewells @JamesSurowiecki However, the most of the studies of e.g. Ct values in breakthrough infections are biased toward studying symptomatic cases (whether the study authors acknowledge it or not). The one study (REACT) that studied *all* infections *did* find breakthroughs had lower viral loads. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dwallacewells @JamesSurowiecki Overall it wouldn't surprise me if vaccines were 75-80% effective against symptomatic COVID under Delta but say 50-60% against any COVID infection, which would explain a lot of the discrepancies we're seeing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dwallacewells @JamesSurowiecki I agree not a lot of asymptomatic people of any kind are probably being tested. But that can also skew the data. e.g. in the Provincetown study a very high percentage of breakthroughs were symptomatic, which means they may not have been typical of breakthrough infections. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dwallacewells @JamesSurowiecki Yeah I'm with James here. Testing and vaccination are quite similar in in that both require a mildly inconvenient encounter with the health care system. Sometimes they're literally done in the same location. Both are something you might skip if you don't take COVID seriously. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's especially unclear given that the endgame is a disease that is very likely to become endemic. To my eyes, strategies that advocate for a slower return to normal do not seem to accept the endemicity of COVID. And one can argue *that's* pretty naive. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People *highly* value normal. Risk preferences vary. It isn't naive for societies to take accept some trade-offs or test out boundaries when they seek out something they value highly. Sometimes they'll move a little too fast. But it's not clear moving slowly is better. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other COVID conceit I dislike is the idea that people are naive for "prematurely" seeking a return to normal. People claw back what they can. They succeed in some ways but others. *Some* strategies are naive. It isn't linear. But progress has been made in fits and starts. — PolitiTweet.org